Position battles between players is what spring training is all about. So here's an update on some of the more fantasy relevant soiree's going down at the moment:
Clint Barmes Col 2B - Going into the off season the Rockies expressed interest in having him keep the second base job all to himself. He played well in the absence of Tulo and ended with decent numbers given his limited ABs.
Why this is relevant: Almost every Rockies position player will be rostered, and a power hitting infielder with multi-position eligibility getting 400+ ABs with a decent track record is a huge deal. Especially given that he's pretty much universally unowned.
Rick Porcello Det SP - This one is a really big IF, but he's been lighting hitters on fire and having one of the best camps of any Tigers pitcher. It all rests on the shoulders of Jim Leyland and whether or not he wants to give the kid a shot.
Why this is relevant: Over the last 4 years there has been a HUGE rash of talented young pitchers making fantasy waves at the major league level. If he breaks camp he's a must own.
Ian Stewart Col OF/3B - Tough break here as it's looking more and more like he'll be splitting his at bats between third base and the outfield when different players need rest. I still think he should be starting in place of Seth Smith, but given the injury history of Helton and Tulo, it's very possible Stewart can still reach 300+ ABs.
Why this is relevant: See Clint Barmes (above). The same applies here.
Jason Motte StL RP - As of now he's ahead of Chris Perez, which is a good decision by LaRussa. Motte has shown excellent control this spring picking up right where he left off in '08. Perez hasn't been horrible, but he's been shaky enough to make it an easy decision for the coaches.
Why this is relevant: Great example of why you should wait on closers. Chances are this will be one of many switches, as always.
Andrew McCutcheon Pit OF - This was one I was watching closely ever since the Nady and Bay trades last August. Unfortunately he has been having a pretty awful spring and seems destined to start the season in Indianapolis. He's still one of the top OF prospects in all of fantasy baseball and a true 5-tool player, but he's still learning and this is probably for the best. Watch for a mid season call up, especially if the glut of mediocre Pirate outfielders underwhelm.
Why this is relevant: 5-tool yumminess is always a welcome fantasy edition to every team.
Andruw Jones update: He's picked it up at the plate a bit, but I would still stay away. There are positive signs, but honestly I don't see where he fits in with the Rangers unless there's a rash of injuries. Unless you're in an AL only league or a REALLY deep mixed league, he shouldn't really be on your radar. He was a marginal fantasy producer when he wasn't hitting 50 HR, and IF he does manage to get some PT in a crowded Texas OF, he's still a tough guy to play.
Roto Wizard
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Player Profile: Jay Bruce
Jay Bruce finally got the opportunity to rake in the big leagues after two and a half absolutely titanic seasons in the minors. In '06, his first year of pro ball, Bruce played 117 games in single A going 69/16/81/19/.291 in 444 ABs. In '07 he split time between high A+, AA and AAA ball. His combined numbers were even better, 87/25/89/8/.304 in 586 ABs. Although these numbers might not be awe inspiring, keep in mind that in '06 he was only 19 years old! He started '08 in AAA but that wouldn't last very long. After hitting .364 with 11 HR and a staggering 37 RBI in just 184 ABs, the Reds decided to make the call and send Bruce to the show. He went on to play 108 games with good power but his average dipped to .254. Unless a player is hitting 40+ that's a terrifying number. The good news is that the Reds are confident that he can improve, and as a fantasy owner, so should you.
At first glance there are some obvious discrepencies in several statistics from his minor league to major league games. His OPS, BABIP and ISO were all down very significant amounts. The most concerning of these numbers was his ISO, which dipped below .200 after hovering around .260 in AAA. So although he was posting decent power numbers, his number of extra base hits dropped a great deal. There is some silver lining here; his drop in ISO also coincided with a huge drop in BABIP. After never posting a BABIP lower than .351 in the minors he dipped to a very pedistrian .298. That's an incredible change of fortune, and it's safe to expect that number to rise at least a little bit. In fact if he can get that number to at least .315 it will boost his average to the .275 range which would at least make him rosterable. This would also add to his value as a baserunner effecting his steal and run totals. Also keep in mind he's still very young and Bruce is still finding his grove as a power hitter.
Bill James is anticipating a return to BABIP glory with a .342 projection. The rest of the James' projections are as follows: 94 R, 35 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SB and a .296 BA in 597 ABs. That's a very welcome improvement to his '08 line and makes him a very solid second OF that can be had in the middle rounds.
I'm a Bruce fan, but I still think his true value is a few years off. If he were to post the numbers James is predicting, he certainly has value, but I'm not buying into the 35 HR area just yet. So here are my projections: 89 R, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 10 SB and a .292 BA. I really don't think his BABIP gets higher than .325 this year nor do I think his ISO goes above .220. So my advice is to expect some growing pains for Bruce and bid passively. In '09 he makes a much better 3rd OF with upside than a consistent number 2 guy.
Roto Wizard.
At first glance there are some obvious discrepencies in several statistics from his minor league to major league games. His OPS, BABIP and ISO were all down very significant amounts. The most concerning of these numbers was his ISO, which dipped below .200 after hovering around .260 in AAA. So although he was posting decent power numbers, his number of extra base hits dropped a great deal. There is some silver lining here; his drop in ISO also coincided with a huge drop in BABIP. After never posting a BABIP lower than .351 in the minors he dipped to a very pedistrian .298. That's an incredible change of fortune, and it's safe to expect that number to rise at least a little bit. In fact if he can get that number to at least .315 it will boost his average to the .275 range which would at least make him rosterable. This would also add to his value as a baserunner effecting his steal and run totals. Also keep in mind he's still very young and Bruce is still finding his grove as a power hitter.
Bill James is anticipating a return to BABIP glory with a .342 projection. The rest of the James' projections are as follows: 94 R, 35 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SB and a .296 BA in 597 ABs. That's a very welcome improvement to his '08 line and makes him a very solid second OF that can be had in the middle rounds.
I'm a Bruce fan, but I still think his true value is a few years off. If he were to post the numbers James is predicting, he certainly has value, but I'm not buying into the 35 HR area just yet. So here are my projections: 89 R, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 10 SB and a .292 BA. I really don't think his BABIP gets higher than .325 this year nor do I think his ISO goes above .220. So my advice is to expect some growing pains for Bruce and bid passively. In '09 he makes a much better 3rd OF with upside than a consistent number 2 guy.
Roto Wizard.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Buy/Sell
Players I'm buying:
Adam Jones Bal OF - Never really liked his 20/10 potential in mixed leagues, but this spring has been ridiculous. Not only does he look like a guy who could post 20/20+ with a high average, he's making play after play in center. He looks to be in mid-season form and honestly with Markakis being so ridiculously overpriced for a 100/20/10/300 guy, if Jones steals 20 or more bases, he's basically a Markakis clone that runs more. That's some pretty hefty value in the late rounds.
Both LaRoche's Pit 3B/1B - No one has really every questioned Andy's potential, but with such lofty expectations he was considered a major bust in LA, so much so that he was traded last August to Pittsburgh as a throw in player for the deal that sent Manny to LA and Bay to Boston. He did HORRIBLE during his two months in Pittsburgh, but this spring has looked like a new man. He's been the hottest hitter on a surprising Pirates team and looks poised to keep the 3B job for at least another year. 80/15/85/.290 with some upside anyone? His brother Adam has been almost as hot at the plate, but the kicker is that Adam has NEVER been a spring player. In fact he hasn't shown up for a major league season statistically until June, at the earliest. But the fact that he is smoking the ball in spring could be a harbringer of things to come. If he finally produces for a full season, it's concievable that he can hit 35+ HR. He hit 25 last year in basically 4 months of work. Buy low on these two while you can.
Tim Lincecum SF SP - You can throw Randy Johnson in here too. Lincecum has been lights out in his appereances this spring, posting a K per inning with just 1 hit and no runs. I almost never buy high on pitchers, but with Johan having arm trouble (a perfect example of why I don't buy high, even on the elite guys) and CC throwing in NY, it's tough to argue against this kid. We might have the first 300k season since Johnson in '02, and honestly, who is going to even come close to challenging him? Santana is the only guy who's consistently bested 250 K's year in and year out, but he's not getting any younger, and one has to wonder how effective he can be for 200+ IP with elbow trouble. Peavy is really the only other guy to get even consistently close to 275 in the last few years, but he had a huge dip in his K/IP last year, which makes it tough to predict 250+. So with the small handful of guys who normally compete for the K title year in and year out having so many question marks, does that make Timmy all the more valuable? I think it does because if he pushes 300Ks and the next highest guy is in the 220's... that's a HUGE statistical advantage even if he does have a dip in ERA and WHIP. If you can get him without having to mortgage the house then you defintely have to consider him. As for snake drafts... I almost see him as a late first rounder or early second pick, even if I throw up in my mouth a little after saying it.
Selling:
Chris Davis Tex 1B/3B - Look, I know it's spring training and he certainly could go on to have a monster season (which I'm hoping he does because I'm highly invested on multiple teams with this kid), but I can no longer justify spending $20 on him, you just can't. We are so high on this guy because of the 35/110 potential, but it's looking more and more like we should be expecting 25/90. He's really looked bad this spring, I mean, if he at least looked good while putting up bad numbers, I'd feel a little better. The simple truth of it is, while the hype is still there, the finality of the numbers are not, and we should be expecting 25/90 and not 35/110. I'm still feeling good about it in keeper leagues. But if you're taking this guy in the sixth round or paying 20 bucks for him, you have got to be fretting a bit. If you haven't drafted yet, skip the hype and buy Mark Reynolds at the end, his BA will be around .260 this year, which is a hell of a lot better than the .240 most people are terrified of. Couple that with 30/100 numbers and you have yourself a solid 3B.
Mark Teixeira 1B NYY - Most of this boils down to not having A-Rod for a month, but there is also some question as to how he'll perform even after he comes back from surgery. If you're going to pay and arm and a leg for Teixeira then you better be getting an arm and a leg in return, and I'm just not so sure anymore. If Rodriguez were to go down for an extended period of time, who is there to protect Tex? Nady? Swisher? The ghost of Joe D??? Those aren't great options but that's all the Yanks really have. If you're drafting Teix for 35/115 numbers that's fine, but if you're paying for 45/140... don't hold your breath.
Every Catcher drafted in the top 100 - Catcher is deep this year. Not only is it deep, it's sneaky deep. There are several $1-5 dollar guys who could end up producing as well as the McCann's, Martin's and Mauer's of the league. Spend your money elsewhere. Hell I'd even recommend buying a pitcher over a high priced catcher this season. I could rattle off several names of guys I like MORE than Russell Martin or Geo Soto. Now Mauer has a bulky back! If you have to choose one go with McCann as he's playing well in the WBC and has shown the most consistency. But I'd still rather buy the Napoli's, Shoppach's and Molina's of the late rounds for a third of the price. Same production with some upside and lot less investment risk.
Roto Wizard
Adam Jones Bal OF - Never really liked his 20/10 potential in mixed leagues, but this spring has been ridiculous. Not only does he look like a guy who could post 20/20+ with a high average, he's making play after play in center. He looks to be in mid-season form and honestly with Markakis being so ridiculously overpriced for a 100/20/10/300 guy, if Jones steals 20 or more bases, he's basically a Markakis clone that runs more. That's some pretty hefty value in the late rounds.
Both LaRoche's Pit 3B/1B - No one has really every questioned Andy's potential, but with such lofty expectations he was considered a major bust in LA, so much so that he was traded last August to Pittsburgh as a throw in player for the deal that sent Manny to LA and Bay to Boston. He did HORRIBLE during his two months in Pittsburgh, but this spring has looked like a new man. He's been the hottest hitter on a surprising Pirates team and looks poised to keep the 3B job for at least another year. 80/15/85/.290 with some upside anyone? His brother Adam has been almost as hot at the plate, but the kicker is that Adam has NEVER been a spring player. In fact he hasn't shown up for a major league season statistically until June, at the earliest. But the fact that he is smoking the ball in spring could be a harbringer of things to come. If he finally produces for a full season, it's concievable that he can hit 35+ HR. He hit 25 last year in basically 4 months of work. Buy low on these two while you can.
Tim Lincecum SF SP - You can throw Randy Johnson in here too. Lincecum has been lights out in his appereances this spring, posting a K per inning with just 1 hit and no runs. I almost never buy high on pitchers, but with Johan having arm trouble (a perfect example of why I don't buy high, even on the elite guys) and CC throwing in NY, it's tough to argue against this kid. We might have the first 300k season since Johnson in '02, and honestly, who is going to even come close to challenging him? Santana is the only guy who's consistently bested 250 K's year in and year out, but he's not getting any younger, and one has to wonder how effective he can be for 200+ IP with elbow trouble. Peavy is really the only other guy to get even consistently close to 275 in the last few years, but he had a huge dip in his K/IP last year, which makes it tough to predict 250+. So with the small handful of guys who normally compete for the K title year in and year out having so many question marks, does that make Timmy all the more valuable? I think it does because if he pushes 300Ks and the next highest guy is in the 220's... that's a HUGE statistical advantage even if he does have a dip in ERA and WHIP. If you can get him without having to mortgage the house then you defintely have to consider him. As for snake drafts... I almost see him as a late first rounder or early second pick, even if I throw up in my mouth a little after saying it.
Selling:
Chris Davis Tex 1B/3B - Look, I know it's spring training and he certainly could go on to have a monster season (which I'm hoping he does because I'm highly invested on multiple teams with this kid), but I can no longer justify spending $20 on him, you just can't. We are so high on this guy because of the 35/110 potential, but it's looking more and more like we should be expecting 25/90. He's really looked bad this spring, I mean, if he at least looked good while putting up bad numbers, I'd feel a little better. The simple truth of it is, while the hype is still there, the finality of the numbers are not, and we should be expecting 25/90 and not 35/110. I'm still feeling good about it in keeper leagues. But if you're taking this guy in the sixth round or paying 20 bucks for him, you have got to be fretting a bit. If you haven't drafted yet, skip the hype and buy Mark Reynolds at the end, his BA will be around .260 this year, which is a hell of a lot better than the .240 most people are terrified of. Couple that with 30/100 numbers and you have yourself a solid 3B.
Mark Teixeira 1B NYY - Most of this boils down to not having A-Rod for a month, but there is also some question as to how he'll perform even after he comes back from surgery. If you're going to pay and arm and a leg for Teixeira then you better be getting an arm and a leg in return, and I'm just not so sure anymore. If Rodriguez were to go down for an extended period of time, who is there to protect Tex? Nady? Swisher? The ghost of Joe D??? Those aren't great options but that's all the Yanks really have. If you're drafting Teix for 35/115 numbers that's fine, but if you're paying for 45/140... don't hold your breath.
Every Catcher drafted in the top 100 - Catcher is deep this year. Not only is it deep, it's sneaky deep. There are several $1-5 dollar guys who could end up producing as well as the McCann's, Martin's and Mauer's of the league. Spend your money elsewhere. Hell I'd even recommend buying a pitcher over a high priced catcher this season. I could rattle off several names of guys I like MORE than Russell Martin or Geo Soto. Now Mauer has a bulky back! If you have to choose one go with McCann as he's playing well in the WBC and has shown the most consistency. But I'd still rather buy the Napoli's, Shoppach's and Molina's of the late rounds for a third of the price. Same production with some upside and lot less investment risk.
Roto Wizard
Friday, March 6, 2009
CP3
Everytime I watch this kid play I walk away feeling extremely satisfied. Not only does he put up some amazing statistics, play sound defense and lead a horrible team to some occasional wins. He's a human highlight real. His latest foray into the NBA plays of the year had him putting the ball between Jason Terry's legs ON A FAST BREAK. It was truly jaw dropping to watch live. Anyways, just wanted to share in case you all are missing out.
Roto Wizard
Roto Wizard
Player Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury
It was a tale of two seasons for Ellsbury in '08. In the months of April, May and September he hit .302/.381/.456 in 261 AB with 6 HR, 26 RBI, 61 R and 33 SB. He also had 31 BB to 27 SO. Yet in the months of June, July and August he hit .259/.293/.340 in 289 AB with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 37 R and 17 SB. His BB/SO rate was an abysmal 17/52.
So which Jacoby are we going to see in '09? During his 3 month reign of terror, in which he seemed absolutely lost at the plate, it was very difficult to expect a strong finish. But he shook it off, made some adjustments and finished very strong in September posting a .889 OPS and .340 BA. He still struck out twice as much as he walked (8 to 4) but his 32 hits in 94 at bats showed he was still capable of making good contact.
This is a pretty common thing for young players. After the first two months pitchers started to make adjustments to his approach at the plate and were able to take advantage of his inexperience. This is when the quality youngsters separate themselves from the upstarts. He stuck with it, worked on his game, made the necessary adjustments and finished strong. He still hits at the top of an excellent lineup and it showed that the coaches and management had faith in him by not taking him out of the lineup when he went into his slump. That speaks volumes to me.
This spring hasn't been anything special. He's only had 3 hits in 12 at bats with no SB attempts. But he's only struck out once. So although the hits aren't coming yet, at least he's making contact on his outs. Bill James has this line for '09: 559 ABs with a .302 AVG, 9 HR, 100 R, 53 RBI and 52 SB. Which is an IMPROVEMENT across the board for Ellsbury. And most importantly he has him with a 45:71 BB/SO rate, a great improvement over his '08 line of 41:80.
It's hard to say if he will be consistently good in '09 or have a huge peak and valley like '08. But honestly, in roto, it doesn't matter. I totally agree with James on this one. Here are my numbers: 571 AB, .295 BA, 11 HR, 103 R, 48 RBI and 49 SB. His ADP is 57th well behind Matt Kemp, so in that respect he's a steal as I'm much higher on Jacoby than I am on Kemp. 10/50 guys don't exactly fall out of the sky and other than Reyes, Rollins and possibly Kemp (though I don't think he'll come anywhere near 50 SB) he's the only other guy capable of it. On a final note, he might be the only player in all of baseball to finish with a 10/50/.300 line by the end of '09. Which makes him the "New, Old Carl Crawford", who by the way, was a perennial top 20 pick there for a couple years with nearly the exact same type of production.
Where do I sign?
Roto Wizard
So which Jacoby are we going to see in '09? During his 3 month reign of terror, in which he seemed absolutely lost at the plate, it was very difficult to expect a strong finish. But he shook it off, made some adjustments and finished very strong in September posting a .889 OPS and .340 BA. He still struck out twice as much as he walked (8 to 4) but his 32 hits in 94 at bats showed he was still capable of making good contact.
This is a pretty common thing for young players. After the first two months pitchers started to make adjustments to his approach at the plate and were able to take advantage of his inexperience. This is when the quality youngsters separate themselves from the upstarts. He stuck with it, worked on his game, made the necessary adjustments and finished strong. He still hits at the top of an excellent lineup and it showed that the coaches and management had faith in him by not taking him out of the lineup when he went into his slump. That speaks volumes to me.
This spring hasn't been anything special. He's only had 3 hits in 12 at bats with no SB attempts. But he's only struck out once. So although the hits aren't coming yet, at least he's making contact on his outs. Bill James has this line for '09: 559 ABs with a .302 AVG, 9 HR, 100 R, 53 RBI and 52 SB. Which is an IMPROVEMENT across the board for Ellsbury. And most importantly he has him with a 45:71 BB/SO rate, a great improvement over his '08 line of 41:80.
It's hard to say if he will be consistently good in '09 or have a huge peak and valley like '08. But honestly, in roto, it doesn't matter. I totally agree with James on this one. Here are my numbers: 571 AB, .295 BA, 11 HR, 103 R, 48 RBI and 49 SB. His ADP is 57th well behind Matt Kemp, so in that respect he's a steal as I'm much higher on Jacoby than I am on Kemp. 10/50 guys don't exactly fall out of the sky and other than Reyes, Rollins and possibly Kemp (though I don't think he'll come anywhere near 50 SB) he's the only other guy capable of it. On a final note, he might be the only player in all of baseball to finish with a 10/50/.300 line by the end of '09. Which makes him the "New, Old Carl Crawford", who by the way, was a perennial top 20 pick there for a couple years with nearly the exact same type of production.
Where do I sign?
Roto Wizard
Spring Training Update
It's been about two weeks since spring training got underway. So here are some statistics from 10 notable players to munch on.
- Chris Shelton (Sea 1B) - 5/12, 3 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI, 1.250 SLG - This is the guy that had the monster April a few years back. Just sayin.
- Chris Dickerson (Cin OF) - 4/13, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, 0/1 SB - Sleeper Alert! BJ has him listed for 564 AB, 93/21/74/37/.268 in '09. WATCH CLOSELY.
- Alex Gordon (KC 3B) - 2 HR, .722 SLG - He's looked great so far, and with an improved KC lineup he could be a 25/15 guy at 3B.
- Adam Jones (Bal OF) - 7 AB, 4 SB, .556 OBP - I'm not a fan, but if he keeps running... I'll jump on the bandwagon.
- Andruw Jones (Tex OF) - 18 AB, 10 SO, .222 SLG - Keep moving, nothing to see here.
- Chris Davis (Tex 3B, 1B) - 19 AB, 4 TB, 9 SO, 5 BB, .586 OPS - Many of us(including myself) are expecting big things. The BB are nice but the Ks & OPS are not.
- Dexter Fowler (Col OF) - 2/13, 7 SO, 2 SB, .368 OPS - He's competing for an OF spot. Those numbers are in no way competitive.
- Evan Longoria (TB 3B) - 7/12, 14 TB, 1.726 OPS - Bid away, he's worth every penny.
- Tim Lincecum (SP SF) - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 k, 0.00 ERA - I have a feeling we will be seeing this line many many times in '09.
- Randy Johnson (SP SF) - 5 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 1.80 ERA - Domination. SF will contend this year, their staff looks incredible this spring.
In fact the Giants projected rotation (Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito and Sanchez) has combined to throw 23 innings with a 3.52 ERA, 26 K, 1.00 WHIP and just 2 HR. Obviously it's early, but if I'm a Giants fan I'd really be wishing we had signed Manny right now.
Alex Rodriguez
Big news out of Yankee's camp today. A-Rod is having surgery to remove a bone-syst from his hip. They are anticipating a 10 week recovery period, which places him back in the lineup right around May 20th. Chances are he comes back a little bit sooner, but there is an interesting spin on this whole thing. It also looks like Alex has been having some signifigant pain in his hip labrum, which is a combination of the cartilage and muscle where the bone meets the socket. They are saying that the labrum has a small tear but they plan to have A-Rod use the 10 weeks to rest, strengthen and ultimately repair the tear through conditioning. Or at the worst, just play through the pain.
Wow. The Karma Police struck fast on this one. All of you A-Rod owners out there have my sympathy. But don't panic, I'm here to offer up some advice and guidance to my children.
First let's start with what, if anything, is to be done with the Yankees third baseman. You can certainly entertain offers for him, but unless you get fair value in return, you're better off just waiting for him to get back. Which leads you to your next condundrum. Who do I pick up to fill the void???
Thankfully there should almost certainly be a few guys out there who can man the hot corner for you while Alex is on the mend. Take a look and see if Mark Reynolds and Kevin Kouzmanouf are available.
I love both of these guys this year and if they are available, it's a real shame. Reynolds is good for 30-35 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI, 10 SB and a .265 AVG. Maybe you think I'm crazy but check his periphs out, his BA will turn around this year, just you watch. He'll be a top 5 3B by the end of the season. Kouzmanouf doesn't offer quite the power that Reynolds does but the AVG should be higher. Expect something along the lines of 25 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI and a .280 BA, with some upside possible.
If you're in a deep league or these guys just aren't available, try you're luck with a guy like Mat Gamel. He's being compared to Ryan Braun; big bat, horrible glove. He has excellent contact skills and should hit for a high average right out of the gate, though his power numbers might still be a year or two away. Another guy to keep an eye on is Andy LaRoche. He's having a great spring which will do wonders for his confidence. All reports are saying he feels great at the plate (his play is proving it) and might be in for a surprise season for you deep leaguers or NL only guys.
Hopefully this helps take the sting out of the A-Rod news if you were unlucky enough to own the Yankees slugger.
Roto Wizard
Wow. The Karma Police struck fast on this one. All of you A-Rod owners out there have my sympathy. But don't panic, I'm here to offer up some advice and guidance to my children.
First let's start with what, if anything, is to be done with the Yankees third baseman. You can certainly entertain offers for him, but unless you get fair value in return, you're better off just waiting for him to get back. Which leads you to your next condundrum. Who do I pick up to fill the void???
Thankfully there should almost certainly be a few guys out there who can man the hot corner for you while Alex is on the mend. Take a look and see if Mark Reynolds and Kevin Kouzmanouf are available.
I love both of these guys this year and if they are available, it's a real shame. Reynolds is good for 30-35 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI, 10 SB and a .265 AVG. Maybe you think I'm crazy but check his periphs out, his BA will turn around this year, just you watch. He'll be a top 5 3B by the end of the season. Kouzmanouf doesn't offer quite the power that Reynolds does but the AVG should be higher. Expect something along the lines of 25 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI and a .280 BA, with some upside possible.
If you're in a deep league or these guys just aren't available, try you're luck with a guy like Mat Gamel. He's being compared to Ryan Braun; big bat, horrible glove. He has excellent contact skills and should hit for a high average right out of the gate, though his power numbers might still be a year or two away. Another guy to keep an eye on is Andy LaRoche. He's having a great spring which will do wonders for his confidence. All reports are saying he feels great at the plate (his play is proving it) and might be in for a surprise season for you deep leaguers or NL only guys.
Hopefully this helps take the sting out of the A-Rod news if you were unlucky enough to own the Yankees slugger.
Roto Wizard
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Player Profile: Nelson Cruz
Last year, in 115 Major League ABs, Nelson Cruz was on fire. In fact, if you add his minor league production to his stint with Texas in '09 he hit a whopping .339 with 44 HR, 125 RBI, 112 R and 27 SB. That is some MAJOR production, and that is what has just about everyone in baseball salivating at the possibility of him duplicating that line.
Let's start with a little back history. Cruz has earned the dubious reputation as a "Quad A" player. This is typical for guys who absolutely pound AAA pitching but have struggled upon being called up. After three unsuccesful stints in the majors (1 with the Brewers and 2 with Texas), the soon to be 29 year old finally made a smooth transition to the majors in '08. In those previously mentioned 115 ABs he hit a smokin' .330 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R, and 3 SB. His play opened some eyes in the Texas orginization and the powers that be have stated the RF job is his to lose. If this holds true you can pencil him in for a minimum of 450 ABs, with 550 a real possibility if his stellar play continues.
Taking a closer look at his numbers the first thing that jumps out at you is his astonishing .388 BABIP during his Texas stint. His career AAA BABIP has never been lower than .363 so one has to believe, if the numbers we are anticipating are to ever happen, his BABIP will have to be in that area. That's not to say that he loses all usefulness if he regresses to a more reasonable number, it's just that if it does regress, don't expect a .330 BA with 40+ HR. For comparisons sake, Albert Pujols has NEVER posted a BABIP higher than .350. So it's pretty safe to say that we can anticipate a drop off in his BABIP. Another concern is his BB/K ratio, which has never risen above the .64 mark. So we can't really count on an increase in BA through the means of taking more walks.
Another telling tale is the signifigant drop in his ISO upon arriving in the majors in '08. During his time in AAA his Isolated Power (ISO) was a gang busting .352 but in his Texas stint it dropped to a relatively tame .278. ISO is a calculation of a players ability to get extra bases on hits. This decline can be seen as such: while he was hitting his share of longballs and driving guys in, the rest of his hits were mostly singles. So even though the BA was stellar, and the RBI and HR were holding steady, he was more or less just trying to make good contact. In other words: Doing his best to not screw up.
Bill James is predicting 443 ABs, a .278 BA, 28 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI and 18 SB. That's a relatively good assesment based on what we just went over. He also has his BABIP at a more reasonable .307 and anticipates his ISO to stay below .300 at .255. Those are still excellent numbers for a player that in most cases will be drafted in the last few rounds and being sold for less than a few bucks in auction drafts.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Nelson Cruz can be counted on for a bit more than that. First off he finally has some confidence and he finally has an orginzation that is showing a little faith in the guy. He's looked fantastic this spring and has a homerun with 3 RBI in his 7 at bats. He also calls the Ballpark in Arlington his home and hits in a stellar lineup with players improving everyday. So here are my predictions, however bullish they may seem:
510 ABs, .288 BA, 92 R, 33 HR, 104 RBI and 19 SB. I think he can pick that ISO up a bit to around the .270 mark while keeping a decent .324 BABIP. These numbers would make him an incredibly valuable 5-tool OF and chances are you can get him so cheap it's almost illegal. Bid with confidence my fellow junkies.
Roto Wizard
Let's start with a little back history. Cruz has earned the dubious reputation as a "Quad A" player. This is typical for guys who absolutely pound AAA pitching but have struggled upon being called up. After three unsuccesful stints in the majors (1 with the Brewers and 2 with Texas), the soon to be 29 year old finally made a smooth transition to the majors in '08. In those previously mentioned 115 ABs he hit a smokin' .330 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R, and 3 SB. His play opened some eyes in the Texas orginization and the powers that be have stated the RF job is his to lose. If this holds true you can pencil him in for a minimum of 450 ABs, with 550 a real possibility if his stellar play continues.
Taking a closer look at his numbers the first thing that jumps out at you is his astonishing .388 BABIP during his Texas stint. His career AAA BABIP has never been lower than .363 so one has to believe, if the numbers we are anticipating are to ever happen, his BABIP will have to be in that area. That's not to say that he loses all usefulness if he regresses to a more reasonable number, it's just that if it does regress, don't expect a .330 BA with 40+ HR. For comparisons sake, Albert Pujols has NEVER posted a BABIP higher than .350. So it's pretty safe to say that we can anticipate a drop off in his BABIP. Another concern is his BB/K ratio, which has never risen above the .64 mark. So we can't really count on an increase in BA through the means of taking more walks.
Another telling tale is the signifigant drop in his ISO upon arriving in the majors in '08. During his time in AAA his Isolated Power (ISO) was a gang busting .352 but in his Texas stint it dropped to a relatively tame .278. ISO is a calculation of a players ability to get extra bases on hits. This decline can be seen as such: while he was hitting his share of longballs and driving guys in, the rest of his hits were mostly singles. So even though the BA was stellar, and the RBI and HR were holding steady, he was more or less just trying to make good contact. In other words: Doing his best to not screw up.
Bill James is predicting 443 ABs, a .278 BA, 28 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI and 18 SB. That's a relatively good assesment based on what we just went over. He also has his BABIP at a more reasonable .307 and anticipates his ISO to stay below .300 at .255. Those are still excellent numbers for a player that in most cases will be drafted in the last few rounds and being sold for less than a few bucks in auction drafts.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Nelson Cruz can be counted on for a bit more than that. First off he finally has some confidence and he finally has an orginzation that is showing a little faith in the guy. He's looked fantastic this spring and has a homerun with 3 RBI in his 7 at bats. He also calls the Ballpark in Arlington his home and hits in a stellar lineup with players improving everyday. So here are my predictions, however bullish they may seem:
510 ABs, .288 BA, 92 R, 33 HR, 104 RBI and 19 SB. I think he can pick that ISO up a bit to around the .270 mark while keeping a decent .324 BABIP. These numbers would make him an incredibly valuable 5-tool OF and chances are you can get him so cheap it's almost illegal. Bid with confidence my fellow junkies.
Roto Wizard
Player Profile: Jeremy Guthrie
I've decided to profile a few players each day. I'll go over their previous statistics, how they look this spring, what their team and experts are expecting, and then give my final analysis. The first player we'll start with is Baltimore Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie.
His statistics from last season are as follows: 30 starts, 190.2 IP, 131 K, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
His advanced statistics: 5.66 k/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, .247 BAA, .267 BABIP.
At first glance these numbers look anything but stellar. Obviously he doesn't pose much of a threat as a K artist, and his HR/9 is a bit on the high side for someone pitching close to 200 innings. These numbers make one think that he's actually due for a decline. But taking a closer look he has improved his BAA in each of the last three seasons. His BABIP has also remained low, leading us to believe that he can maintain a low number. Also his GB/FB ratio increased over his '07 campain as did his HR/FB percentage.
At 30 years old is hard to pose an arguement for a large improvement, but we can certainly point to him as a late bloomer with low mileage. So it's feasible that we can expect at least a little improvement in his control, which would help with his peripherials and have an impact on his K/BB and ultimately on his fantasy statistics.
Bill James is predicting 30 starts, 195 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 131 K, and 11 wins. These are pretty mediocre numbers. Other than his K/9 James is predicting some regression in his other advanced statistics. In his first spring outing he went 3 innings giving up 3 hits and a walk and looked very comfortable. Keep a close eye on him this spring. If he maintains this form I believe you can expect these numbers:
31 Starts, 13 Wins, 204 IP, 142 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
He's going largely undrafted in snake drafts and for no more than $1 in auction drafts. These numbers would make the Orioles ace an excellent value pick in the waning rounds of the draft.
Roto Wizard
His statistics from last season are as follows: 30 starts, 190.2 IP, 131 K, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
His advanced statistics: 5.66 k/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, .247 BAA, .267 BABIP.
At first glance these numbers look anything but stellar. Obviously he doesn't pose much of a threat as a K artist, and his HR/9 is a bit on the high side for someone pitching close to 200 innings. These numbers make one think that he's actually due for a decline. But taking a closer look he has improved his BAA in each of the last three seasons. His BABIP has also remained low, leading us to believe that he can maintain a low number. Also his GB/FB ratio increased over his '07 campain as did his HR/FB percentage.
At 30 years old is hard to pose an arguement for a large improvement, but we can certainly point to him as a late bloomer with low mileage. So it's feasible that we can expect at least a little improvement in his control, which would help with his peripherials and have an impact on his K/BB and ultimately on his fantasy statistics.
Bill James is predicting 30 starts, 195 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 131 K, and 11 wins. These are pretty mediocre numbers. Other than his K/9 James is predicting some regression in his other advanced statistics. In his first spring outing he went 3 innings giving up 3 hits and a walk and looked very comfortable. Keep a close eye on him this spring. If he maintains this form I believe you can expect these numbers:
31 Starts, 13 Wins, 204 IP, 142 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
He's going largely undrafted in snake drafts and for no more than $1 in auction drafts. These numbers would make the Orioles ace an excellent value pick in the waning rounds of the draft.
Roto Wizard
Manny Ramirez: Finally
Manny Ramirez signed today with the Dodgers. Let me first say this: He knew exactly what he was doing. As the season drew nearer his leverage over the Dodger Blue was growing exponentially. He and Boras were able to squeeze every last dollar out of them and got a deal that fit his career perfectly. So lets go over quickly how this affects the fantasy landscape. For the most part guys like Kemp, Either, Furcal etc... are being drafted as if Manny was all ready in the lineup. But a guy like Juan Pierre loses a tremendous amount of value as his playing time will now be reduced drastically, as the OF will now be manned by Kemp, Either and Manny. Pierre will be hard pressed to eclipse 200 ABs, so unless he's traded you can pretty much nix him as a cheap source of steals in mixed leagues. As for Manny it will be interesting to see how his season plays out. He's certainly capable of posting Manny-esque numbers, as his post trade numbers proved. My forecast is as follows:
550 ABs, 105 Runs, 42 HR, 120 RBI, .315 BA, 2 SB
It's possible he can eclipse these numbers, though not by much. If Furcal plays a full season and Either, Kemp and Loney continue to improve these numbers can be written in sharpie. As for dollar value, I've seen him go for as little as $15 and as much as $30. I'd pencil him in around that $27 mark, though I wouldn't argue with someone willing to pay a bit more than that, and anyone who got him below $20 can consider it an incredible buy. His power numbers will be similar to Braun, but since he doesn't swipe bases like Braun does, you can't really justify spending in the Braun range, though Manny's average will be a bit better. I'm pretty much telling you what you all ready know, but in case you weren't sure, I hope this helps.
Roto Wizard
550 ABs, 105 Runs, 42 HR, 120 RBI, .315 BA, 2 SB
It's possible he can eclipse these numbers, though not by much. If Furcal plays a full season and Either, Kemp and Loney continue to improve these numbers can be written in sharpie. As for dollar value, I've seen him go for as little as $15 and as much as $30. I'd pencil him in around that $27 mark, though I wouldn't argue with someone willing to pay a bit more than that, and anyone who got him below $20 can consider it an incredible buy. His power numbers will be similar to Braun, but since he doesn't swipe bases like Braun does, you can't really justify spending in the Braun range, though Manny's average will be a bit better. I'm pretty much telling you what you all ready know, but in case you weren't sure, I hope this helps.
Roto Wizard
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
Draft Strategies: The LIMA Plan
Ever since Ron Shandler revolutionized the strategics of fantasy drafting when he developed his LIMA Plan (low investment mound aces), drafting has gone from a means to forming a team to a multi-million dollar science. The pitching pool this year is the deepest I've ever seen it. With that in mind we are going to revist Shandlers LIMA plan in a 10 team $260 auction league.
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, 9 P, and 3 Bench.
(This is a standard ESPN auction draft)
Let's start with a little math. Each team starts with $260 to fill 25 roster spots. If you spend a minimum of $1 on each spot that leaves you with $235 to spend to improve those 25 spots (260-25=235). Now, the key to executing the LIMA plan first begins with a good bit of research. I've spent considerable time this offseason looking for pitchers that go largely undrafted and usually don't cost anything more than $1. Here is a list of players that I feel have a great chance of exeding expectations and are being overlooked by the fanatsy community:
Paul Maholm, Manny Parra, Jeremy Guthrie, Jonathan Sanchez, Jair Jurrjens, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Justin Masterson, Wandy Rodriguez, Kenshin Kawakami, Jesse Litsch, Jeff Samardzija, Jered Weaver, Chris Carpenter, Chris Young, Fausto Carmona, Edwin Jackson, Nick Blackburn, Kelvin Escobar, Ian Snell, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Jorge Campillo, Rick Porcello, Rich Hill, and Jeff Karstens.
That's a very long list and can be intimidating if you're not familiar with their names and statistics. Several of these players are coming of very good campaigns, some are youngsters competing for jobs, a few are veterans coming back from injury, and a couple guys coming off horrible seasons but have showed signs of progress in spring training. Obviously you won't be drafting all of these players, but the bigger the list, the better, because there may very well be other managers targetting any number of these players, and when the money gets tight, you might not have enough to even spend an extra dollar to get them. But, each and every one of these pitchers should be available to you for $1. Pay attention to what these players do during the spring, who is progressing from injury, who looks to have the inside track on a starting job and who is(or isn't) struggling with command. The best of the bunch are Maholm, Guthrie, Jurrjens, Weaver, Litsch, Young, Porcello and Samardzija.
Now that you have your sleeper list for pitchers. It's time to take yourself through the first part of the draft. The thinking here is that you want to completely dominate the offensive landscape. Using a little bit more math we can calculate what our budget is for the offensive positions. You also want to be nominating stud pitchers every chance you get to clean out the landscape and force other managers to spend large portions of their payroll on something other than offense.
There are 9 pitcher spots, and our goal is to spend $1 on each. So you can subtract 9 from 25, which gives you 16. We can also assume that we won't be spending anymore than a $1 on our 3 bench spots and our catcher, which takes us down another 4 to 12. So, we have $235 to spend on 12 roster spots. That's an average of $20 and some change (since we've all ready included a dollar charge for each of those 12 spots the exact math is (235+12)/12=20 and some change) . Not bad, but we can do better. Now let's figure out which stud players we are going to target to fill the 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, and OF spots. Let's target Pujols($40), Kinsler($30), C. Davis($20), H-Ram($40), Howard($25), Phillips($20), and Braun($35). These are the absolute maximum dollar values we can consider spending on these players. It's very possible that the prices we actually pay will be less, but it makes it easy on ourselves to over value before the draft and compensate later in the event of a discount. So, the total of those 7 spots is $210. Since we all ready included a dollar for each roster spot we can take this total down to $203 (210-7=203) That leaves us with $32 to spend on our remaining 4 outfielders and our utility spot.
The average value for each is roughly $6 and some change but the best way to approach it at this point is to adapt a bit to your draft. It's very likely that you will be able to get players like Nate McClouth, Bobby Abreu, Corey Hart, Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, Jay Bruce and others between $10-$15. So for the sake of simplicity let's assume we snag McClouth for $14, Adam Dunn for $9 and Lastings Milledge for $3 so that puts us at a total of $23 (after subtracting our $1 charge for each position). So we now have $9 left to spend on whatever we see fit. For our remaining OF and Util spot we take $1 flyers on Elijah Dukes and Nelson Cruz and then take Kevin Kouzmanouf and Ian Stewart as our offensive bench players as well as our dollar catcher, in this case let's say we snagged Gerald Laird.
So now our offense is filled and we can spend an extra $9 on pitching. At this point I'd check to see the dollar amount available to your other owners and gauge the availability of the closers left against it. Maybe spend a few extra dollars to get guys like Chad Qualls, Matt Lindstrom, Joel Hanrahan and Brandon Lyon. Chances are one or two of these guys will be available for a buck at the end but make sure you get at least one closer (or even two). Also you can spend an extra dollar to get a guy like Brandon Morrow, Randy Johnson, John Danks, or Chris Volstad. Or perhaps you can just go all out and try to land a Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson, Scott Baker or Matt Cain. Chances are you won't, nor would I recommend it, but to each their own. Then once you're down to a dollar you can start throwing out those LIMA aces we talked about at the begining. Well there you have it, a perfectely executed Lima Plan. So let's recap our roster:
C - $1 Gerald Laird
1B - $40 Albert Pujols
2B - $30 Ian Kinsler
3B - $20 Chris Davis
SS - $40 Hanley Ramirez
MI - $20 Brandon Phillips
CI - $25 Ryan Howard
OF - $35 Ryan Braun
OF - $13 Nate McClouth
OF - $9 Adam Dunn
OF - $3 Lastings Milledge
OF - $1 Elijah Dukes
Util - $1 Nelson Cruz
Bench - $1 Kevin Kouzmanouf
Bench - $1 Ian Stewart
P - $5 Chad Qualls
P - $5 Brandon Lyon
P - $3 Joel Hanrahan
P - $1 Paul Maholm
P - $1 Jeremy Guthrie
P - $1 Manny Parra
P - $1 Jair Jurrjens
P - $1 Chris Young
P - $1 Jered Weaver
Bench - $1 Jesse Litsch
$260 spent and the LIMA plan executed to a T. Obviously things out of your control can happen, perhaps someone goes all in on Hanley Ramirez or Albert Pujols that leaves you shaking your head wondering how in the world someone could pay $50 for them. If that's the case just do some mental adjusting. Instead target Miggy or Reyes and use the remaining funds elsewhere. This is just a 'sketch' if you will. Hell you're team could look better than this if you end up spending considerable less on the stud players (which is possible especially considering that these are usually the MAX values for each player). So remember, the key is that no matter what strategy you take to your draft, you MUST be prepared to adjust.
Good luck!
Roto Wizard
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, 9 P, and 3 Bench.
(This is a standard ESPN auction draft)
Let's start with a little math. Each team starts with $260 to fill 25 roster spots. If you spend a minimum of $1 on each spot that leaves you with $235 to spend to improve those 25 spots (260-25=235). Now, the key to executing the LIMA plan first begins with a good bit of research. I've spent considerable time this offseason looking for pitchers that go largely undrafted and usually don't cost anything more than $1. Here is a list of players that I feel have a great chance of exeding expectations and are being overlooked by the fanatsy community:
Paul Maholm, Manny Parra, Jeremy Guthrie, Jonathan Sanchez, Jair Jurrjens, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Justin Masterson, Wandy Rodriguez, Kenshin Kawakami, Jesse Litsch, Jeff Samardzija, Jered Weaver, Chris Carpenter, Chris Young, Fausto Carmona, Edwin Jackson, Nick Blackburn, Kelvin Escobar, Ian Snell, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Jorge Campillo, Rick Porcello, Rich Hill, and Jeff Karstens.
That's a very long list and can be intimidating if you're not familiar with their names and statistics. Several of these players are coming of very good campaigns, some are youngsters competing for jobs, a few are veterans coming back from injury, and a couple guys coming off horrible seasons but have showed signs of progress in spring training. Obviously you won't be drafting all of these players, but the bigger the list, the better, because there may very well be other managers targetting any number of these players, and when the money gets tight, you might not have enough to even spend an extra dollar to get them. But, each and every one of these pitchers should be available to you for $1. Pay attention to what these players do during the spring, who is progressing from injury, who looks to have the inside track on a starting job and who is(or isn't) struggling with command. The best of the bunch are Maholm, Guthrie, Jurrjens, Weaver, Litsch, Young, Porcello and Samardzija.
Now that you have your sleeper list for pitchers. It's time to take yourself through the first part of the draft. The thinking here is that you want to completely dominate the offensive landscape. Using a little bit more math we can calculate what our budget is for the offensive positions. You also want to be nominating stud pitchers every chance you get to clean out the landscape and force other managers to spend large portions of their payroll on something other than offense.
There are 9 pitcher spots, and our goal is to spend $1 on each. So you can subtract 9 from 25, which gives you 16. We can also assume that we won't be spending anymore than a $1 on our 3 bench spots and our catcher, which takes us down another 4 to 12. So, we have $235 to spend on 12 roster spots. That's an average of $20 and some change (since we've all ready included a dollar charge for each of those 12 spots the exact math is (235+12)/12=20 and some change) . Not bad, but we can do better. Now let's figure out which stud players we are going to target to fill the 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, and OF spots. Let's target Pujols($40), Kinsler($30), C. Davis($20), H-Ram($40), Howard($25), Phillips($20), and Braun($35). These are the absolute maximum dollar values we can consider spending on these players. It's very possible that the prices we actually pay will be less, but it makes it easy on ourselves to over value before the draft and compensate later in the event of a discount. So, the total of those 7 spots is $210. Since we all ready included a dollar for each roster spot we can take this total down to $203 (210-7=203) That leaves us with $32 to spend on our remaining 4 outfielders and our utility spot.
The average value for each is roughly $6 and some change but the best way to approach it at this point is to adapt a bit to your draft. It's very likely that you will be able to get players like Nate McClouth, Bobby Abreu, Corey Hart, Torii Hunter, Johnny Damon, Jay Bruce and others between $10-$15. So for the sake of simplicity let's assume we snag McClouth for $14, Adam Dunn for $9 and Lastings Milledge for $3 so that puts us at a total of $23 (after subtracting our $1 charge for each position). So we now have $9 left to spend on whatever we see fit. For our remaining OF and Util spot we take $1 flyers on Elijah Dukes and Nelson Cruz and then take Kevin Kouzmanouf and Ian Stewart as our offensive bench players as well as our dollar catcher, in this case let's say we snagged Gerald Laird.
So now our offense is filled and we can spend an extra $9 on pitching. At this point I'd check to see the dollar amount available to your other owners and gauge the availability of the closers left against it. Maybe spend a few extra dollars to get guys like Chad Qualls, Matt Lindstrom, Joel Hanrahan and Brandon Lyon. Chances are one or two of these guys will be available for a buck at the end but make sure you get at least one closer (or even two). Also you can spend an extra dollar to get a guy like Brandon Morrow, Randy Johnson, John Danks, or Chris Volstad. Or perhaps you can just go all out and try to land a Chad Billingsley, Josh Johnson, Scott Baker or Matt Cain. Chances are you won't, nor would I recommend it, but to each their own. Then once you're down to a dollar you can start throwing out those LIMA aces we talked about at the begining. Well there you have it, a perfectely executed Lima Plan. So let's recap our roster:
C - $1 Gerald Laird
1B - $40 Albert Pujols
2B - $30 Ian Kinsler
3B - $20 Chris Davis
SS - $40 Hanley Ramirez
MI - $20 Brandon Phillips
CI - $25 Ryan Howard
OF - $35 Ryan Braun
OF - $13 Nate McClouth
OF - $9 Adam Dunn
OF - $3 Lastings Milledge
OF - $1 Elijah Dukes
Util - $1 Nelson Cruz
Bench - $1 Kevin Kouzmanouf
Bench - $1 Ian Stewart
P - $5 Chad Qualls
P - $5 Brandon Lyon
P - $3 Joel Hanrahan
P - $1 Paul Maholm
P - $1 Jeremy Guthrie
P - $1 Manny Parra
P - $1 Jair Jurrjens
P - $1 Chris Young
P - $1 Jered Weaver
Bench - $1 Jesse Litsch
$260 spent and the LIMA plan executed to a T. Obviously things out of your control can happen, perhaps someone goes all in on Hanley Ramirez or Albert Pujols that leaves you shaking your head wondering how in the world someone could pay $50 for them. If that's the case just do some mental adjusting. Instead target Miggy or Reyes and use the remaining funds elsewhere. This is just a 'sketch' if you will. Hell you're team could look better than this if you end up spending considerable less on the stud players (which is possible especially considering that these are usually the MAX values for each player). So remember, the key is that no matter what strategy you take to your draft, you MUST be prepared to adjust.
Good luck!
Roto Wizard
A few words on some big hype youngsters
Recently in a draft I witnessed a bidding war over a trio pitchers that have been getting a lot of hype this off-season. Zack Grienke, Yovanni Gollardo and Josh Johnson. These guys have made tremendous strides in their game and each offer some major upside. But as the season draws nearer they seem to be going for more and more in each draft ($15+ I saw Grienke go for $21!!). Of the three I think Gollardo has the best chance to post numbers near his $ amount. His stikeout potential is legit and with a little luck he could post Liriano-like numbers. Grienke has excellent command and has decent K/9 numbers, but his W total may suffer in KC (though I feel KC will surprise a bit this year). Johnson is the one I like the least though his QS% was better than names like Halladay, Webb, Peavy and Haren. So here's my forecast for these three players:
Grienke: 191 IP, 12 wins, 182 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Gollardo: 203 IP, 14 wins, 191 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Johnson: 184 IP 13 wins, 168 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
I preach getting the players you want, but paying purely for upside can really come back to bite you, especially with pitchers. If you can't get these guys under $15 then let another owner take them.
On the offensive side of the coin there are two guys that I feel the need to write about: Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. I love both of these guys and honestly offensive production is alot easier to predict than pitching statistics. Davis is looking more and more like a guy that can post 90/35/110/280 numbers with multi-posistion eligibility. With those numbers I fully condone spending $20 on him, but once it starts to get to that point, take a look at the BA of the guys you have. If you're looking good then back off and go for Mark Reynolds. If not then maybe pay that extra dollar or two, but consider a guy like Kevin Kouzmanouf who can hit for average and could post 30/100 with 25/85 an almost certainty. Each of those two guys can be had for $1-$5.
As for Bruce his underlying peripherials are pointing to a huge season statistically. It's hard to see him hitting for anything more than a .280 AVG but the power numbers are almost limitless. His improved fly ball % and contact rate, as well as an increase in his pitches per at-bat point to 30+ HR with 35+ a real possibility. Depending on how the top of the order shapes out in Cinci he could post 100+ RBI but expect something closer to 90. He's also a good bet for 90+ runs. He'll even swipe some bases. So taking those numbers to your draft don't be afraid to shell out that $10, those are Carlos Quentin like numbers at half the price.
Grienke: 191 IP, 12 wins, 182 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Gollardo: 203 IP, 14 wins, 191 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Johnson: 184 IP 13 wins, 168 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
I preach getting the players you want, but paying purely for upside can really come back to bite you, especially with pitchers. If you can't get these guys under $15 then let another owner take them.
On the offensive side of the coin there are two guys that I feel the need to write about: Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. I love both of these guys and honestly offensive production is alot easier to predict than pitching statistics. Davis is looking more and more like a guy that can post 90/35/110/280 numbers with multi-posistion eligibility. With those numbers I fully condone spending $20 on him, but once it starts to get to that point, take a look at the BA of the guys you have. If you're looking good then back off and go for Mark Reynolds. If not then maybe pay that extra dollar or two, but consider a guy like Kevin Kouzmanouf who can hit for average and could post 30/100 with 25/85 an almost certainty. Each of those two guys can be had for $1-$5.
As for Bruce his underlying peripherials are pointing to a huge season statistically. It's hard to see him hitting for anything more than a .280 AVG but the power numbers are almost limitless. His improved fly ball % and contact rate, as well as an increase in his pitches per at-bat point to 30+ HR with 35+ a real possibility. Depending on how the top of the order shapes out in Cinci he could post 100+ RBI but expect something closer to 90. He's also a good bet for 90+ runs. He'll even swipe some bases. So taking those numbers to your draft don't be afraid to shell out that $10, those are Carlos Quentin like numbers at half the price.
An Introduction to Roto Wizard
Hello my fellow roto addicts! And Welcome to your non stop analysis for everything fantasy sports. Just a few quick words about myself and what you can look forward to. I have a decade of experience and spend several hours a day immersing myself in our little fantasy realm. I specialize in Baseball and Football, but I also have extensive knowledge in hockey. You won't see much basketball here as I'm simply not that interested in the NBA. Though you may see some discussion from time to time. You can anticipate several blogs per day, some short, some long, but all give pause to discussion and intuitive thinking. You can reach me through email at roto_wizard@yahoo.com
I look forward to making this the first stop in everyones fantasy day, hearing your feedback, stimulating some discussion and helping everyone achieve a new level of fantasy domination!
Roto Wizard
I look forward to making this the first stop in everyones fantasy day, hearing your feedback, stimulating some discussion and helping everyone achieve a new level of fantasy domination!
Roto Wizard
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