Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Player Profile: Nelson Cruz

Last year, in 115 Major League ABs, Nelson Cruz was on fire. In fact, if you add his minor league production to his stint with Texas in '09 he hit a whopping .339 with 44 HR, 125 RBI, 112 R and 27 SB. That is some MAJOR production, and that is what has just about everyone in baseball salivating at the possibility of him duplicating that line.

Let's start with a little back history. Cruz has earned the dubious reputation as a "Quad A" player. This is typical for guys who absolutely pound AAA pitching but have struggled upon being called up. After three unsuccesful stints in the majors (1 with the Brewers and 2 with Texas), the soon to be 29 year old finally made a smooth transition to the majors in '08. In those previously mentioned 115 ABs he hit a smokin' .330 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R, and 3 SB. His play opened some eyes in the Texas orginization and the powers that be have stated the RF job is his to lose. If this holds true you can pencil him in for a minimum of 450 ABs, with 550 a real possibility if his stellar play continues.

Taking a closer look at his numbers the first thing that jumps out at you is his astonishing .388 BABIP during his Texas stint. His career AAA BABIP has never been lower than .363 so one has to believe, if the numbers we are anticipating are to ever happen, his BABIP will have to be in that area. That's not to say that he loses all usefulness if he regresses to a more reasonable number, it's just that if it does regress, don't expect a .330 BA with 40+ HR. For comparisons sake, Albert Pujols has NEVER posted a BABIP higher than .350. So it's pretty safe to say that we can anticipate a drop off in his BABIP. Another concern is his BB/K ratio, which has never risen above the .64 mark. So we can't really count on an increase in BA through the means of taking more walks.

Another telling tale is the signifigant drop in his ISO upon arriving in the majors in '08. During his time in AAA his Isolated Power (ISO) was a gang busting .352 but in his Texas stint it dropped to a relatively tame .278. ISO is a calculation of a players ability to get extra bases on hits. This decline can be seen as such: while he was hitting his share of longballs and driving guys in, the rest of his hits were mostly singles. So even though the BA was stellar, and the RBI and HR were holding steady, he was more or less just trying to make good contact. In other words: Doing his best to not screw up.

Bill James is predicting 443 ABs, a .278 BA, 28 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI and 18 SB. That's a relatively good assesment based on what we just went over. He also has his BABIP at a more reasonable .307 and anticipates his ISO to stay below .300 at .255. Those are still excellent numbers for a player that in most cases will be drafted in the last few rounds and being sold for less than a few bucks in auction drafts.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Nelson Cruz can be counted on for a bit more than that. First off he finally has some confidence and he finally has an orginzation that is showing a little faith in the guy. He's looked fantastic this spring and has a homerun with 3 RBI in his 7 at bats. He also calls the Ballpark in Arlington his home and hits in a stellar lineup with players improving everyday. So here are my predictions, however bullish they may seem:

510 ABs, .288 BA, 92 R, 33 HR, 104 RBI and 19 SB. I think he can pick that ISO up a bit to around the .270 mark while keeping a decent .324 BABIP. These numbers would make him an incredibly valuable 5-tool OF and chances are you can get him so cheap it's almost illegal. Bid with confidence my fellow junkies.

Roto Wizard

Player Profile: Jeremy Guthrie

I've decided to profile a few players each day. I'll go over their previous statistics, how they look this spring, what their team and experts are expecting, and then give my final analysis. The first player we'll start with is Baltimore Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie.

His statistics from last season are as follows: 30 starts, 190.2 IP, 131 K, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
His advanced statistics: 5.66 k/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, .247 BAA, .267 BABIP.

At first glance these numbers look anything but stellar. Obviously he doesn't pose much of a threat as a K artist, and his HR/9 is a bit on the high side for someone pitching close to 200 innings. These numbers make one think that he's actually due for a decline. But taking a closer look he has improved his BAA in each of the last three seasons. His BABIP has also remained low, leading us to believe that he can maintain a low number. Also his GB/FB ratio increased over his '07 campain as did his HR/FB percentage.
At 30 years old is hard to pose an arguement for a large improvement, but we can certainly point to him as a late bloomer with low mileage. So it's feasible that we can expect at least a little improvement in his control, which would help with his peripherials and have an impact on his K/BB and ultimately on his fantasy statistics.

Bill James is predicting 30 starts, 195 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 131 K, and 11 wins. These are pretty mediocre numbers. Other than his K/9 James is predicting some regression in his other advanced statistics. In his first spring outing he went 3 innings giving up 3 hits and a walk and looked very comfortable. Keep a close eye on him this spring. If he maintains this form I believe you can expect these numbers:

31 Starts, 13 Wins, 204 IP, 142 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

He's going largely undrafted in snake drafts and for no more than $1 in auction drafts. These numbers would make the Orioles ace an excellent value pick in the waning rounds of the draft.

Roto Wizard

Manny Ramirez: Finally

Manny Ramirez signed today with the Dodgers. Let me first say this: He knew exactly what he was doing. As the season drew nearer his leverage over the Dodger Blue was growing exponentially. He and Boras were able to squeeze every last dollar out of them and got a deal that fit his career perfectly. So lets go over quickly how this affects the fantasy landscape. For the most part guys like Kemp, Either, Furcal etc... are being drafted as if Manny was all ready in the lineup. But a guy like Juan Pierre loses a tremendous amount of value as his playing time will now be reduced drastically, as the OF will now be manned by Kemp, Either and Manny. Pierre will be hard pressed to eclipse 200 ABs, so unless he's traded you can pretty much nix him as a cheap source of steals in mixed leagues. As for Manny it will be interesting to see how his season plays out. He's certainly capable of posting Manny-esque numbers, as his post trade numbers proved. My forecast is as follows:

550 ABs, 105 Runs, 42 HR, 120 RBI, .315 BA, 2 SB

It's possible he can eclipse these numbers, though not by much. If Furcal plays a full season and Either, Kemp and Loney continue to improve these numbers can be written in sharpie. As for dollar value, I've seen him go for as little as $15 and as much as $30. I'd pencil him in around that $27 mark, though I wouldn't argue with someone willing to pay a bit more than that, and anyone who got him below $20 can consider it an incredible buy. His power numbers will be similar to Braun, but since he doesn't swipe bases like Braun does, you can't really justify spending in the Braun range, though Manny's average will be a bit better. I'm pretty much telling you what you all ready know, but in case you weren't sure, I hope this helps.

Roto Wizard