To the radio personalities at 93.7 The Fan, Pittsburgh

This is a response to the constant and incessant bashing of the Pirates management staff by the radio personalities at 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh.

In 1999 the Pirates drafted a young blue chip prospect that was dubbed the 'next Barry Bonds' by the media, particularly those in and around the Pittsburgh area. His batting practices in the spring of 2000 were legendary, citing repeated comparisons to the likes of Bonds, Bonilla, Stargell, and even the immortal Clemente. The Pirates shelled out a then record sum to draft and sign this young phenom, with the hopes of riding his coattails to a winning season in a fantastic new ballpark, and ultimately out of the doldrums of the NL Central. Chad Hermansen ultimately flopped and the franchise has been paying the price for buying into the hype ever since.

This June the Pirates may have the opportunity to draft another young power hitting high school slugger. Bryce Harper has been dubbed by some as the "LeBron of Baseball". The sweet swinging 17 year old catcher has been tearing apart low division college teams all year. He's hitting over .400 with 17 home runs in a shade under 200 at bats so far. What's even more enticing is the fact that he is doing all of this with a wooden bat. At 17!

Today I listened to, not for the first time, several The Fan personalities lay into the Pirates, and more specifically the owner and management staff. "He's a must draft" they say, "How can the Pirates even consider passing on this kind of talent?".

And to this, I say: Simple. He's 17.

Let's go back for a few moments, to when you were 17. Now pretend for a moment that you're a fantastic athlete, a chiseled 6'-3" 205 pound frame (by some accounts an inch and 10 lbs more than that). The world it at your finger tips. People are calling you the "Next LeBron James", you are by far the consensus number one prospect in this years draft. At 17, you'll be given 10's of millions of dollars (a low estimate for a Scott Boras client) by a team that has been playing losing baseball since before you were born. You are instantly dubbed The Savior or The Franchise, or whatever other name people take to calling you. At 17.

Would you like to know how many star athletes have been successful as adults after being given millions as a teenager? You can count them on one hand. The number of failures, however, is vast and well documented.

All this before you even take into account Bryce Harper's attitude or in scout vernacular: Makeup.

This is a direct excerpt from a column written by Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

"This should not be underrated. It's impossible to find any talent evaluator who isn't blown away by Harper's ability on the field, but it's equally difficult to find one who doesn't genuinely dislike the kid. One scout called him among the worst amateur players he's ever seen from a makeup standpoint, with top-of-the-scale arrogance, a disturbingly large sense of entitlement, and on-field behavior that includes taunting opponents. "He's just a bad, bad guy," said one front-office official. "He's basically the anti-Joe Mauer."

(you can read the rest of this excellent Harper piece, here)

So the final question is this: When the Pirates pass on giving a petulant, arrogant 17 year old 10's of millions of guaranteed dollars, how will the headlines read? Hopefully they speak of Pirates brass learning from past mistakes and not making the same one over. Bryce Harper is not Matt Wieters, in fact, you'd be hard pressed to convince me he's even worth drafting, let alone drafting as a top 3 pick.

Hockey Musings

With the hockey season in full swing let's take a look at several players that are underachieving, overachieving and those that are... uh... achieving?

Quick Hits:

1. Anze Kopitar F, LA Kings - The leagues current leading scorer at 24 points has nearly single handedly turned the Kings into an early season power. Kopitar has scored 60 or more points in all three of his NHL seasons, but his current pace would put him in line for an astonishing 90-138-228 season. Obviously that kind of production over the course of an entire season is unrealistic. So what can his owners expect from here on out? His current shooting percentage of 25% is more than 10% over his career average. His shot pace puts him in line for right around 240 shots which is about what he had last year. So if we adjust his shooting percentage down to around the 15% mark we can pencil him in for around 30 more goals which would give him the first 40 goal campaign of his career. Not unreasonable for a talented player skating in his fourth full season. Much more intriguing is his rapid accumulation of assists. As stated he's currently on pace for an astounding 138 helpers, nearly a 100 more than his career average. The uptempo style of play of the Kings has them clicking on all cylinders, they are a young talented team that passes well and attacks the neutral zone as good as any team in the league. Kopitar has 4 points in the Kings 5 losses and 20 points in their 9 wins, so it appears Kopitar's production is tied directly to the teams quality of play. The Kings will certainly stumble for stretches during this season as their youth and inexperience are exploited. That being said I still believe Kopitar could be in line for a 40-60-100 season which would place him among the elite scorers in the NHL.
Trade Value: A-: I would strongly consider shopping Kopitar around as his value is unlikely to get any higher than it is right now, and his pace will almost certainly slow down.

April Musings

It's been a very interesting April as we continue to analyze players out of the gate. I'll take some time here to go over each division and the players that are making fantasy noise in some way.

National League

East: Florida Marlins

Emilio Bonificio 2B/3B Marlins - His play, and subsequent lack there of, has been beatin' to death in blogs and fantasy articles since day one. As a fantasy manager there are only two things you'll need to pay attention to. His OBP and his place in the batting order, if he keeps his lead off spot and can reach base at a .350+ clip he's worthy of a roster spot. He's all ready shown he'll be a streaky player so tread with caution. But in the remaining 5 months he should be good for 70+ runs 25+ stolen bases and a modest .280 BA. Personally I wouldn't bother rostering him unless you're very weak at second or third, but that's just me. (Think Chone Figgins, with less experience).

Ricky Nolasco SP Marlins - In 4 starts he has givin up less than 4 ER just once, has yet to go more than 6 innings and is averaging less than 6 IP per start. His ERA and WHIP are a nasty 6.86 and 1.67 respectively. There is some silver lining here though. He has averaged less than 2 walks per start and his 17/6 K:BB ratio is almost a healthy 3:1 which is actually pretty stellar. His biggest problem at the moment is his hittability, if he can keep the ball low and limit the number of mistake pitches, he could easily go on a tear. There's no reason to panic here and he's an excellent buy low candidate.

Hanley Ramirez SS Marlins - Obviously it's still April, and it's not as if H-Ram has been bad, but this is a guy that has always played well in April. He's average a HR every 20 ABs, a SB every 13, a .333 BA and a .991 OPS. At the moment he's on pace for an 86/22/119/22/.270/.753 OPS line, which isn't bad but not good enough for the 'best player in baseball'. Most people will tell you not to be worried, and frankly they are probabbly right, but the last three years have been very worrisome as his BA, SB and Runs have all trended downwards while his HR and RBI have only had modest gains. Now, he could easily finish April on a tear and get back to his 40/40 line which is what most people have paid for, but the Fish have been on a tear since the start of the season but Hanley has only had a moderate impact on this. I would quietly shop him for Pujols or perhaps a multi package player. H-Ram still commands a good deal of quan in leagues but if his season continues on pace, you might be left with much less than you bargained for.

Food for Thought

The first week of baseball has been pretty exciting and there are several side plots developing quickly. It's also been very tragic. 22 year old Angel's rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart died in a car crash outside of Fullerton, CA in the wee hours of this morning, just hours after stifling the A's through six innings. In times like this you'll hear people use words like 'tragic' and 'heart wrenching' but in reality there is nothing you can say when moments like this arrive. I, like many others, will simply be shaking our heads in near disbelief, and can only wonder what it must be like for his friends, family, teammates and those in the Angels orginization. Because in all honesty, can anyone outside of those people, and the people who have been touched by similar tragedies, even begin to understand the emotion involved? Just keep the Adenhart family in your prayers, for that is simply all that we can do.

Spring Update

Position battles between players is what spring training is all about. So here's an update on some of the more fantasy relevant soiree's going down at the moment:

Clint Barmes Col 2B - Going into the off season the Rockies expressed interest in having him keep the second base job all to himself. He played well in the absence of Tulo and ended with decent numbers given his limited ABs.
Why this is relevant: Almost every Rockies position player will be rostered, and a power hitting infielder with multi-position eligibility getting 400+ ABs with a decent track record is a huge deal. Especially given that he's pretty much universally unowned.

Rick Porcello Det SP - This one is a really big IF, but he's been lighting hitters on fire and having one of the best camps of any Tigers pitcher. It all rests on the shoulders of Jim Leyland and whether or not he wants to give the kid a shot.
Why this is relevant: Over the last 4 years there has been a HUGE rash of talented young pitchers making fantasy waves at the major league level. If he breaks camp he's a must own.

Ian Stewart Col OF/3B - Tough break here as it's looking more and more like he'll be splitting his at bats between third base and the outfield when different players need rest. I still think he should be starting in place of Seth Smith, but given the injury history of Helton and Tulo, it's very possible Stewart can still reach 300+ ABs.
Why this is relevant: See Clint Barmes (above). The same applies here.

Jason Motte StL RP - As of now he's ahead of Chris Perez, which is a good decision by LaRussa. Motte has shown excellent control this spring picking up right where he left off in '08. Perez hasn't been horrible, but he's been shaky enough to make it an easy decision for the coaches.
Why this is relevant: Great example of why you should wait on closers. Chances are this will be one of many switches, as always.

Andrew McCutcheon Pit OF - This was one I was watching closely ever since the Nady and Bay trades last August. Unfortunately he has been having a pretty awful spring and seems destined to start the season in Indianapolis. He's still one of the top OF prospects in all of fantasy baseball and a true 5-tool player, but he's still learning and this is probably for the best. Watch for a mid season call up, especially if the glut of mediocre Pirate outfielders underwhelm.
Why this is relevant: 5-tool yumminess is always a welcome fantasy edition to every team.

Andruw Jones update: He's picked it up at the plate a bit, but I would still stay away. There are positive signs, but honestly I don't see where he fits in with the Rangers unless there's a rash of injuries. Unless you're in an AL only league or a REALLY deep mixed league, he shouldn't really be on your radar. He was a marginal fantasy producer when he wasn't hitting 50 HR, and IF he does manage to get some PT in a crowded Texas OF, he's still a tough guy to play.

Roto Wizard

Player Profile: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce finally got the opportunity to rake in the big leagues after two and a half absolutely titanic seasons in the minors. In '06, his first year of pro ball, Bruce played 117 games in single A going 69/16/81/19/.291 in 444 ABs. In '07 he split time between high A+, AA and AAA ball. His combined numbers were even better, 87/25/89/8/.304 in 586 ABs. Although these numbers might not be awe inspiring, keep in mind that in '06 he was only 19 years old! He started '08 in AAA but that wouldn't last very long. After hitting .364 with 11 HR and a staggering 37 RBI in just 184 ABs, the Reds decided to make the call and send Bruce to the show. He went on to play 108 games with good power but his average dipped to .254. Unless a player is hitting 40+ that's a terrifying number. The good news is that the Reds are confident that he can improve, and as a fantasy owner, so should you.

At first glance there are some obvious discrepencies in several statistics from his minor league to major league games. His OPS, BABIP and ISO were all down very significant amounts. The most concerning of these numbers was his ISO, which dipped below .200 after hovering around .260 in AAA. So although he was posting decent power numbers, his number of extra base hits dropped a great deal. There is some silver lining here; his drop in ISO also coincided with a huge drop in BABIP. After never posting a BABIP lower than .351 in the minors he dipped to a very pedistrian .298. That's an incredible change of fortune, and it's safe to expect that number to rise at least a little bit. In fact if he can get that number to at least .315 it will boost his average to the .275 range which would at least make him rosterable. This would also add to his value as a baserunner effecting his steal and run totals. Also keep in mind he's still very young and Bruce is still finding his grove as a power hitter.

Bill James is anticipating a return to BABIP glory with a .342 projection. The rest of the James' projections are as follows: 94 R, 35 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SB and a .296 BA in 597 ABs. That's a very welcome improvement to his '08 line and makes him a very solid second OF that can be had in the middle rounds.

I'm a Bruce fan, but I still think his true value is a few years off. If he were to post the numbers James is predicting, he certainly has value, but I'm not buying into the 35 HR area just yet. So here are my projections: 89 R, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 10 SB and a .292 BA. I really don't think his BABIP gets higher than .325 this year nor do I think his ISO goes above .220. So my advice is to expect some growing pains for Bruce and bid passively. In '09 he makes a much better 3rd OF with upside than a consistent number 2 guy.

Roto Wizard.

Buy/Sell

Players I'm buying:

Adam Jones Bal OF - Never really liked his 20/10 potential in mixed leagues, but this spring has been ridiculous. Not only does he look like a guy who could post 20/20+ with a high average, he's making play after play in center. He looks to be in mid-season form and honestly with Markakis being so ridiculously overpriced for a 100/20/10/300 guy, if Jones steals 20 or more bases, he's basically a Markakis clone that runs more. That's some pretty hefty value in the late rounds.

Both LaRoche's Pit 3B/1B - No one has really every questioned Andy's potential, but with such lofty expectations he was considered a major bust in LA, so much so that he was traded last August to Pittsburgh as a throw in player for the deal that sent Manny to LA and Bay to Boston. He did HORRIBLE during his two months in Pittsburgh, but this spring has looked like a new man. He's been the hottest hitter on a surprising Pirates team and looks poised to keep the 3B job for at least another year. 80/15/85/.290 with some upside anyone? His brother Adam has been almost as hot at the plate, but the kicker is that Adam has NEVER been a spring player. In fact he hasn't shown up for a major league season statistically until June, at the earliest. But the fact that he is smoking the ball in spring could be a harbringer of things to come. If he finally produces for a full season, it's concievable that he can hit 35+ HR. He hit 25 last year in basically 4 months of work. Buy low on these two while you can.

Tim Lincecum SF SP - You can throw Randy Johnson in here too. Lincecum has been lights out in his appereances this spring, posting a K per inning with just 1 hit and no runs. I almost never buy high on pitchers, but with Johan having arm trouble (a perfect example of why I don't buy high, even on the elite guys) and CC throwing in NY, it's tough to argue against this kid. We might have the first 300k season since Johnson in '02, and honestly, who is going to even come close to challenging him? Santana is the only guy who's consistently bested 250 K's year in and year out, but he's not getting any younger, and one has to wonder how effective he can be for 200+ IP with elbow trouble. Peavy is really the only other guy to get even consistently close to 275 in the last few years, but he had a huge dip in his K/IP last year, which makes it tough to predict 250+. So with the small handful of guys who normally compete for the K title year in and year out having so many question marks, does that make Timmy all the more valuable? I think it does because if he pushes 300Ks and the next highest guy is in the 220's... that's a HUGE statistical advantage even if he does have a dip in ERA and WHIP. If you can get him without having to mortgage the house then you defintely have to consider him. As for snake drafts... I almost see him as a late first rounder or early second pick, even if I throw up in my mouth a little after saying it.

Selling:

Chris Davis Tex 1B/3B - Look, I know it's spring training and he certainly could go on to have a monster season (which I'm hoping he does because I'm highly invested on multiple teams with this kid), but I can no longer justify spending $20 on him, you just can't. We are so high on this guy because of the 35/110 potential, but it's looking more and more like we should be expecting 25/90. He's really looked bad this spring, I mean, if he at least looked good while putting up bad numbers, I'd feel a little better. The simple truth of it is, while the hype is still there, the finality of the numbers are not, and we should be expecting 25/90 and not 35/110. I'm still feeling good about it in keeper leagues. But if you're taking this guy in the sixth round or paying 20 bucks for him, you have got to be fretting a bit. If you haven't drafted yet, skip the hype and buy Mark Reynolds at the end, his BA will be around .260 this year, which is a hell of a lot better than the .240 most people are terrified of. Couple that with 30/100 numbers and you have yourself a solid 3B.

Mark Teixeira 1B NYY - Most of this boils down to not having A-Rod for a month, but there is also some question as to how he'll perform even after he comes back from surgery. If you're going to pay and arm and a leg for Teixeira then you better be getting an arm and a leg in return, and I'm just not so sure anymore. If Rodriguez were to go down for an extended period of time, who is there to protect Tex? Nady? Swisher? The ghost of Joe D??? Those aren't great options but that's all the Yanks really have. If you're drafting Teix for 35/115 numbers that's fine, but if you're paying for 45/140... don't hold your breath.

Every Catcher drafted in the top 100 - Catcher is deep this year. Not only is it deep, it's sneaky deep. There are several $1-5 dollar guys who could end up producing as well as the McCann's, Martin's and Mauer's of the league. Spend your money elsewhere. Hell I'd even recommend buying a pitcher over a high priced catcher this season. I could rattle off several names of guys I like MORE than Russell Martin or Geo Soto. Now Mauer has a bulky back! If you have to choose one go with McCann as he's playing well in the WBC and has shown the most consistency. But I'd still rather buy the Napoli's, Shoppach's and Molina's of the late rounds for a third of the price. Same production with some upside and lot less investment risk.

Roto Wizard