Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Hockey Musings

With the hockey season in full swing let's take a look at several players that are underachieving, overachieving and those that are... uh... achieving?

Quick Hits:

1. Anze Kopitar F, LA Kings - The leagues current leading scorer at 24 points has nearly single handedly turned the Kings into an early season power. Kopitar has scored 60 or more points in all three of his NHL seasons, but his current pace would put him in line for an astonishing 90-138-228 season. Obviously that kind of production over the course of an entire season is unrealistic. So what can his owners expect from here on out? His current shooting percentage of 25% is more than 10% over his career average. His shot pace puts him in line for right around 240 shots which is about what he had last year. So if we adjust his shooting percentage down to around the 15% mark we can pencil him in for around 30 more goals which would give him the first 40 goal campaign of his career. Not unreasonable for a talented player skating in his fourth full season. Much more intriguing is his rapid accumulation of assists. As stated he's currently on pace for an astounding 138 helpers, nearly a 100 more than his career average. The uptempo style of play of the Kings has them clicking on all cylinders, they are a young talented team that passes well and attacks the neutral zone as good as any team in the league. Kopitar has 4 points in the Kings 5 losses and 20 points in their 9 wins, so it appears Kopitar's production is tied directly to the teams quality of play. The Kings will certainly stumble for stretches during this season as their youth and inexperience are exploited. That being said I still believe Kopitar could be in line for a 40-60-100 season which would place him among the elite scorers in the NHL.
Trade Value: A-: I would strongly consider shopping Kopitar around as his value is unlikely to get any higher than it is right now, and his pace will almost certainly slow down.