Everytime I watch this kid play I walk away feeling extremely satisfied. Not only does he put up some amazing statistics, play sound defense and lead a horrible team to some occasional wins. He's a human highlight real. His latest foray into the NBA plays of the year had him putting the ball between Jason Terry's legs ON A FAST BREAK. It was truly jaw dropping to watch live. Anyways, just wanted to share in case you all are missing out.
Roto Wizard
Friday, March 6, 2009
Player Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury
It was a tale of two seasons for Ellsbury in '08. In the months of April, May and September he hit .302/.381/.456 in 261 AB with 6 HR, 26 RBI, 61 R and 33 SB. He also had 31 BB to 27 SO. Yet in the months of June, July and August he hit .259/.293/.340 in 289 AB with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 37 R and 17 SB. His BB/SO rate was an abysmal 17/52.
So which Jacoby are we going to see in '09? During his 3 month reign of terror, in which he seemed absolutely lost at the plate, it was very difficult to expect a strong finish. But he shook it off, made some adjustments and finished very strong in September posting a .889 OPS and .340 BA. He still struck out twice as much as he walked (8 to 4) but his 32 hits in 94 at bats showed he was still capable of making good contact.
This is a pretty common thing for young players. After the first two months pitchers started to make adjustments to his approach at the plate and were able to take advantage of his inexperience. This is when the quality youngsters separate themselves from the upstarts. He stuck with it, worked on his game, made the necessary adjustments and finished strong. He still hits at the top of an excellent lineup and it showed that the coaches and management had faith in him by not taking him out of the lineup when he went into his slump. That speaks volumes to me.
This spring hasn't been anything special. He's only had 3 hits in 12 at bats with no SB attempts. But he's only struck out once. So although the hits aren't coming yet, at least he's making contact on his outs. Bill James has this line for '09: 559 ABs with a .302 AVG, 9 HR, 100 R, 53 RBI and 52 SB. Which is an IMPROVEMENT across the board for Ellsbury. And most importantly he has him with a 45:71 BB/SO rate, a great improvement over his '08 line of 41:80.
It's hard to say if he will be consistently good in '09 or have a huge peak and valley like '08. But honestly, in roto, it doesn't matter. I totally agree with James on this one. Here are my numbers: 571 AB, .295 BA, 11 HR, 103 R, 48 RBI and 49 SB. His ADP is 57th well behind Matt Kemp, so in that respect he's a steal as I'm much higher on Jacoby than I am on Kemp. 10/50 guys don't exactly fall out of the sky and other than Reyes, Rollins and possibly Kemp (though I don't think he'll come anywhere near 50 SB) he's the only other guy capable of it. On a final note, he might be the only player in all of baseball to finish with a 10/50/.300 line by the end of '09. Which makes him the "New, Old Carl Crawford", who by the way, was a perennial top 20 pick there for a couple years with nearly the exact same type of production.
Where do I sign?
Roto Wizard
So which Jacoby are we going to see in '09? During his 3 month reign of terror, in which he seemed absolutely lost at the plate, it was very difficult to expect a strong finish. But he shook it off, made some adjustments and finished very strong in September posting a .889 OPS and .340 BA. He still struck out twice as much as he walked (8 to 4) but his 32 hits in 94 at bats showed he was still capable of making good contact.
This is a pretty common thing for young players. After the first two months pitchers started to make adjustments to his approach at the plate and were able to take advantage of his inexperience. This is when the quality youngsters separate themselves from the upstarts. He stuck with it, worked on his game, made the necessary adjustments and finished strong. He still hits at the top of an excellent lineup and it showed that the coaches and management had faith in him by not taking him out of the lineup when he went into his slump. That speaks volumes to me.
This spring hasn't been anything special. He's only had 3 hits in 12 at bats with no SB attempts. But he's only struck out once. So although the hits aren't coming yet, at least he's making contact on his outs. Bill James has this line for '09: 559 ABs with a .302 AVG, 9 HR, 100 R, 53 RBI and 52 SB. Which is an IMPROVEMENT across the board for Ellsbury. And most importantly he has him with a 45:71 BB/SO rate, a great improvement over his '08 line of 41:80.
It's hard to say if he will be consistently good in '09 or have a huge peak and valley like '08. But honestly, in roto, it doesn't matter. I totally agree with James on this one. Here are my numbers: 571 AB, .295 BA, 11 HR, 103 R, 48 RBI and 49 SB. His ADP is 57th well behind Matt Kemp, so in that respect he's a steal as I'm much higher on Jacoby than I am on Kemp. 10/50 guys don't exactly fall out of the sky and other than Reyes, Rollins and possibly Kemp (though I don't think he'll come anywhere near 50 SB) he's the only other guy capable of it. On a final note, he might be the only player in all of baseball to finish with a 10/50/.300 line by the end of '09. Which makes him the "New, Old Carl Crawford", who by the way, was a perennial top 20 pick there for a couple years with nearly the exact same type of production.
Where do I sign?
Roto Wizard
Spring Training Update
It's been about two weeks since spring training got underway. So here are some statistics from 10 notable players to munch on.
- Chris Shelton (Sea 1B) - 5/12, 3 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI, 1.250 SLG - This is the guy that had the monster April a few years back. Just sayin.
- Chris Dickerson (Cin OF) - 4/13, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, 0/1 SB - Sleeper Alert! BJ has him listed for 564 AB, 93/21/74/37/.268 in '09. WATCH CLOSELY.
- Alex Gordon (KC 3B) - 2 HR, .722 SLG - He's looked great so far, and with an improved KC lineup he could be a 25/15 guy at 3B.
- Adam Jones (Bal OF) - 7 AB, 4 SB, .556 OBP - I'm not a fan, but if he keeps running... I'll jump on the bandwagon.
- Andruw Jones (Tex OF) - 18 AB, 10 SO, .222 SLG - Keep moving, nothing to see here.
- Chris Davis (Tex 3B, 1B) - 19 AB, 4 TB, 9 SO, 5 BB, .586 OPS - Many of us(including myself) are expecting big things. The BB are nice but the Ks & OPS are not.
- Dexter Fowler (Col OF) - 2/13, 7 SO, 2 SB, .368 OPS - He's competing for an OF spot. Those numbers are in no way competitive.
- Evan Longoria (TB 3B) - 7/12, 14 TB, 1.726 OPS - Bid away, he's worth every penny.
- Tim Lincecum (SP SF) - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 k, 0.00 ERA - I have a feeling we will be seeing this line many many times in '09.
- Randy Johnson (SP SF) - 5 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 1.80 ERA - Domination. SF will contend this year, their staff looks incredible this spring.
In fact the Giants projected rotation (Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito and Sanchez) has combined to throw 23 innings with a 3.52 ERA, 26 K, 1.00 WHIP and just 2 HR. Obviously it's early, but if I'm a Giants fan I'd really be wishing we had signed Manny right now.
Alex Rodriguez
Big news out of Yankee's camp today. A-Rod is having surgery to remove a bone-syst from his hip. They are anticipating a 10 week recovery period, which places him back in the lineup right around May 20th. Chances are he comes back a little bit sooner, but there is an interesting spin on this whole thing. It also looks like Alex has been having some signifigant pain in his hip labrum, which is a combination of the cartilage and muscle where the bone meets the socket. They are saying that the labrum has a small tear but they plan to have A-Rod use the 10 weeks to rest, strengthen and ultimately repair the tear through conditioning. Or at the worst, just play through the pain.
Wow. The Karma Police struck fast on this one. All of you A-Rod owners out there have my sympathy. But don't panic, I'm here to offer up some advice and guidance to my children.
First let's start with what, if anything, is to be done with the Yankees third baseman. You can certainly entertain offers for him, but unless you get fair value in return, you're better off just waiting for him to get back. Which leads you to your next condundrum. Who do I pick up to fill the void???
Thankfully there should almost certainly be a few guys out there who can man the hot corner for you while Alex is on the mend. Take a look and see if Mark Reynolds and Kevin Kouzmanouf are available.
I love both of these guys this year and if they are available, it's a real shame. Reynolds is good for 30-35 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI, 10 SB and a .265 AVG. Maybe you think I'm crazy but check his periphs out, his BA will turn around this year, just you watch. He'll be a top 5 3B by the end of the season. Kouzmanouf doesn't offer quite the power that Reynolds does but the AVG should be higher. Expect something along the lines of 25 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI and a .280 BA, with some upside possible.
If you're in a deep league or these guys just aren't available, try you're luck with a guy like Mat Gamel. He's being compared to Ryan Braun; big bat, horrible glove. He has excellent contact skills and should hit for a high average right out of the gate, though his power numbers might still be a year or two away. Another guy to keep an eye on is Andy LaRoche. He's having a great spring which will do wonders for his confidence. All reports are saying he feels great at the plate (his play is proving it) and might be in for a surprise season for you deep leaguers or NL only guys.
Hopefully this helps take the sting out of the A-Rod news if you were unlucky enough to own the Yankees slugger.
Roto Wizard
Wow. The Karma Police struck fast on this one. All of you A-Rod owners out there have my sympathy. But don't panic, I'm here to offer up some advice and guidance to my children.
First let's start with what, if anything, is to be done with the Yankees third baseman. You can certainly entertain offers for him, but unless you get fair value in return, you're better off just waiting for him to get back. Which leads you to your next condundrum. Who do I pick up to fill the void???
Thankfully there should almost certainly be a few guys out there who can man the hot corner for you while Alex is on the mend. Take a look and see if Mark Reynolds and Kevin Kouzmanouf are available.
I love both of these guys this year and if they are available, it's a real shame. Reynolds is good for 30-35 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI, 10 SB and a .265 AVG. Maybe you think I'm crazy but check his periphs out, his BA will turn around this year, just you watch. He'll be a top 5 3B by the end of the season. Kouzmanouf doesn't offer quite the power that Reynolds does but the AVG should be higher. Expect something along the lines of 25 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI and a .280 BA, with some upside possible.
If you're in a deep league or these guys just aren't available, try you're luck with a guy like Mat Gamel. He's being compared to Ryan Braun; big bat, horrible glove. He has excellent contact skills and should hit for a high average right out of the gate, though his power numbers might still be a year or two away. Another guy to keep an eye on is Andy LaRoche. He's having a great spring which will do wonders for his confidence. All reports are saying he feels great at the plate (his play is proving it) and might be in for a surprise season for you deep leaguers or NL only guys.
Hopefully this helps take the sting out of the A-Rod news if you were unlucky enough to own the Yankees slugger.
Roto Wizard
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