Players I'm buying:
Adam Jones Bal OF - Never really liked his 20/10 potential in mixed leagues, but this spring has been ridiculous. Not only does he look like a guy who could post 20/20+ with a high average, he's making play after play in center. He looks to be in mid-season form and honestly with Markakis being so ridiculously overpriced for a 100/20/10/300 guy, if Jones steals 20 or more bases, he's basically a Markakis clone that runs more. That's some pretty hefty value in the late rounds.
Both LaRoche's Pit 3B/1B - No one has really every questioned Andy's potential, but with such lofty expectations he was considered a major bust in LA, so much so that he was traded last August to Pittsburgh as a throw in player for the deal that sent Manny to LA and Bay to Boston. He did HORRIBLE during his two months in Pittsburgh, but this spring has looked like a new man. He's been the hottest hitter on a surprising Pirates team and looks poised to keep the 3B job for at least another year. 80/15/85/.290 with some upside anyone? His brother Adam has been almost as hot at the plate, but the kicker is that Adam has NEVER been a spring player. In fact he hasn't shown up for a major league season statistically until June, at the earliest. But the fact that he is smoking the ball in spring could be a harbringer of things to come. If he finally produces for a full season, it's concievable that he can hit 35+ HR. He hit 25 last year in basically 4 months of work. Buy low on these two while you can.
Tim Lincecum SF SP - You can throw Randy Johnson in here too. Lincecum has been lights out in his appereances this spring, posting a K per inning with just 1 hit and no runs. I almost never buy high on pitchers, but with Johan having arm trouble (a perfect example of why I don't buy high, even on the elite guys) and CC throwing in NY, it's tough to argue against this kid. We might have the first 300k season since Johnson in '02, and honestly, who is going to even come close to challenging him? Santana is the only guy who's consistently bested 250 K's year in and year out, but he's not getting any younger, and one has to wonder how effective he can be for 200+ IP with elbow trouble. Peavy is really the only other guy to get even consistently close to 275 in the last few years, but he had a huge dip in his K/IP last year, which makes it tough to predict 250+. So with the small handful of guys who normally compete for the K title year in and year out having so many question marks, does that make Timmy all the more valuable? I think it does because if he pushes 300Ks and the next highest guy is in the 220's... that's a HUGE statistical advantage even if he does have a dip in ERA and WHIP. If you can get him without having to mortgage the house then you defintely have to consider him. As for snake drafts... I almost see him as a late first rounder or early second pick, even if I throw up in my mouth a little after saying it.
Selling:
Chris Davis Tex 1B/3B - Look, I know it's spring training and he certainly could go on to have a monster season (which I'm hoping he does because I'm highly invested on multiple teams with this kid), but I can no longer justify spending $20 on him, you just can't. We are so high on this guy because of the 35/110 potential, but it's looking more and more like we should be expecting 25/90. He's really looked bad this spring, I mean, if he at least looked good while putting up bad numbers, I'd feel a little better. The simple truth of it is, while the hype is still there, the finality of the numbers are not, and we should be expecting 25/90 and not 35/110. I'm still feeling good about it in keeper leagues. But if you're taking this guy in the sixth round or paying 20 bucks for him, you have got to be fretting a bit. If you haven't drafted yet, skip the hype and buy Mark Reynolds at the end, his BA will be around .260 this year, which is a hell of a lot better than the .240 most people are terrified of. Couple that with 30/100 numbers and you have yourself a solid 3B.
Mark Teixeira 1B NYY - Most of this boils down to not having A-Rod for a month, but there is also some question as to how he'll perform even after he comes back from surgery. If you're going to pay and arm and a leg for Teixeira then you better be getting an arm and a leg in return, and I'm just not so sure anymore. If Rodriguez were to go down for an extended period of time, who is there to protect Tex? Nady? Swisher? The ghost of Joe D??? Those aren't great options but that's all the Yanks really have. If you're drafting Teix for 35/115 numbers that's fine, but if you're paying for 45/140... don't hold your breath.
Every Catcher drafted in the top 100 - Catcher is deep this year. Not only is it deep, it's sneaky deep. There are several $1-5 dollar guys who could end up producing as well as the McCann's, Martin's and Mauer's of the league. Spend your money elsewhere. Hell I'd even recommend buying a pitcher over a high priced catcher this season. I could rattle off several names of guys I like MORE than Russell Martin or Geo Soto. Now Mauer has a bulky back! If you have to choose one go with McCann as he's playing well in the WBC and has shown the most consistency. But I'd still rather buy the Napoli's, Shoppach's and Molina's of the late rounds for a third of the price. Same production with some upside and lot less investment risk.
Roto Wizard
