Everytime I watch this kid play I walk away feeling extremely satisfied. Not only does he put up some amazing statistics, play sound defense and lead a horrible team to some occasional wins. He's a human highlight real. His latest foray into the NBA plays of the year had him putting the ball between Jason Terry's legs ON A FAST BREAK. It was truly jaw dropping to watch live. Anyways, just wanted to share in case you all are missing out.
Roto Wizard
Friday, March 6, 2009
Player Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury
It was a tale of two seasons for Ellsbury in '08. In the months of April, May and September he hit .302/.381/.456 in 261 AB with 6 HR, 26 RBI, 61 R and 33 SB. He also had 31 BB to 27 SO. Yet in the months of June, July and August he hit .259/.293/.340 in 289 AB with 3 HR, 21 RBI, 37 R and 17 SB. His BB/SO rate was an abysmal 17/52.
So which Jacoby are we going to see in '09? During his 3 month reign of terror, in which he seemed absolutely lost at the plate, it was very difficult to expect a strong finish. But he shook it off, made some adjustments and finished very strong in September posting a .889 OPS and .340 BA. He still struck out twice as much as he walked (8 to 4) but his 32 hits in 94 at bats showed he was still capable of making good contact.
This is a pretty common thing for young players. After the first two months pitchers started to make adjustments to his approach at the plate and were able to take advantage of his inexperience. This is when the quality youngsters separate themselves from the upstarts. He stuck with it, worked on his game, made the necessary adjustments and finished strong. He still hits at the top of an excellent lineup and it showed that the coaches and management had faith in him by not taking him out of the lineup when he went into his slump. That speaks volumes to me.
This spring hasn't been anything special. He's only had 3 hits in 12 at bats with no SB attempts. But he's only struck out once. So although the hits aren't coming yet, at least he's making contact on his outs. Bill James has this line for '09: 559 ABs with a .302 AVG, 9 HR, 100 R, 53 RBI and 52 SB. Which is an IMPROVEMENT across the board for Ellsbury. And most importantly he has him with a 45:71 BB/SO rate, a great improvement over his '08 line of 41:80.
It's hard to say if he will be consistently good in '09 or have a huge peak and valley like '08. But honestly, in roto, it doesn't matter. I totally agree with James on this one. Here are my numbers: 571 AB, .295 BA, 11 HR, 103 R, 48 RBI and 49 SB. His ADP is 57th well behind Matt Kemp, so in that respect he's a steal as I'm much higher on Jacoby than I am on Kemp. 10/50 guys don't exactly fall out of the sky and other than Reyes, Rollins and possibly Kemp (though I don't think he'll come anywhere near 50 SB) he's the only other guy capable of it. On a final note, he might be the only player in all of baseball to finish with a 10/50/.300 line by the end of '09. Which makes him the "New, Old Carl Crawford", who by the way, was a perennial top 20 pick there for a couple years with nearly the exact same type of production.
Where do I sign?
Roto Wizard
So which Jacoby are we going to see in '09? During his 3 month reign of terror, in which he seemed absolutely lost at the plate, it was very difficult to expect a strong finish. But he shook it off, made some adjustments and finished very strong in September posting a .889 OPS and .340 BA. He still struck out twice as much as he walked (8 to 4) but his 32 hits in 94 at bats showed he was still capable of making good contact.
This is a pretty common thing for young players. After the first two months pitchers started to make adjustments to his approach at the plate and were able to take advantage of his inexperience. This is when the quality youngsters separate themselves from the upstarts. He stuck with it, worked on his game, made the necessary adjustments and finished strong. He still hits at the top of an excellent lineup and it showed that the coaches and management had faith in him by not taking him out of the lineup when he went into his slump. That speaks volumes to me.
This spring hasn't been anything special. He's only had 3 hits in 12 at bats with no SB attempts. But he's only struck out once. So although the hits aren't coming yet, at least he's making contact on his outs. Bill James has this line for '09: 559 ABs with a .302 AVG, 9 HR, 100 R, 53 RBI and 52 SB. Which is an IMPROVEMENT across the board for Ellsbury. And most importantly he has him with a 45:71 BB/SO rate, a great improvement over his '08 line of 41:80.
It's hard to say if he will be consistently good in '09 or have a huge peak and valley like '08. But honestly, in roto, it doesn't matter. I totally agree with James on this one. Here are my numbers: 571 AB, .295 BA, 11 HR, 103 R, 48 RBI and 49 SB. His ADP is 57th well behind Matt Kemp, so in that respect he's a steal as I'm much higher on Jacoby than I am on Kemp. 10/50 guys don't exactly fall out of the sky and other than Reyes, Rollins and possibly Kemp (though I don't think he'll come anywhere near 50 SB) he's the only other guy capable of it. On a final note, he might be the only player in all of baseball to finish with a 10/50/.300 line by the end of '09. Which makes him the "New, Old Carl Crawford", who by the way, was a perennial top 20 pick there for a couple years with nearly the exact same type of production.
Where do I sign?
Roto Wizard
Spring Training Update
It's been about two weeks since spring training got underway. So here are some statistics from 10 notable players to munch on.
- Chris Shelton (Sea 1B) - 5/12, 3 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI, 1.250 SLG - This is the guy that had the monster April a few years back. Just sayin.
- Chris Dickerson (Cin OF) - 4/13, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI, 0/1 SB - Sleeper Alert! BJ has him listed for 564 AB, 93/21/74/37/.268 in '09. WATCH CLOSELY.
- Alex Gordon (KC 3B) - 2 HR, .722 SLG - He's looked great so far, and with an improved KC lineup he could be a 25/15 guy at 3B.
- Adam Jones (Bal OF) - 7 AB, 4 SB, .556 OBP - I'm not a fan, but if he keeps running... I'll jump on the bandwagon.
- Andruw Jones (Tex OF) - 18 AB, 10 SO, .222 SLG - Keep moving, nothing to see here.
- Chris Davis (Tex 3B, 1B) - 19 AB, 4 TB, 9 SO, 5 BB, .586 OPS - Many of us(including myself) are expecting big things. The BB are nice but the Ks & OPS are not.
- Dexter Fowler (Col OF) - 2/13, 7 SO, 2 SB, .368 OPS - He's competing for an OF spot. Those numbers are in no way competitive.
- Evan Longoria (TB 3B) - 7/12, 14 TB, 1.726 OPS - Bid away, he's worth every penny.
- Tim Lincecum (SP SF) - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 k, 0.00 ERA - I have a feeling we will be seeing this line many many times in '09.
- Randy Johnson (SP SF) - 5 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 9 K, 1.80 ERA - Domination. SF will contend this year, their staff looks incredible this spring.
In fact the Giants projected rotation (Lincecum, Cain, Johnson, Zito and Sanchez) has combined to throw 23 innings with a 3.52 ERA, 26 K, 1.00 WHIP and just 2 HR. Obviously it's early, but if I'm a Giants fan I'd really be wishing we had signed Manny right now.
Alex Rodriguez
Big news out of Yankee's camp today. A-Rod is having surgery to remove a bone-syst from his hip. They are anticipating a 10 week recovery period, which places him back in the lineup right around May 20th. Chances are he comes back a little bit sooner, but there is an interesting spin on this whole thing. It also looks like Alex has been having some signifigant pain in his hip labrum, which is a combination of the cartilage and muscle where the bone meets the socket. They are saying that the labrum has a small tear but they plan to have A-Rod use the 10 weeks to rest, strengthen and ultimately repair the tear through conditioning. Or at the worst, just play through the pain.
Wow. The Karma Police struck fast on this one. All of you A-Rod owners out there have my sympathy. But don't panic, I'm here to offer up some advice and guidance to my children.
First let's start with what, if anything, is to be done with the Yankees third baseman. You can certainly entertain offers for him, but unless you get fair value in return, you're better off just waiting for him to get back. Which leads you to your next condundrum. Who do I pick up to fill the void???
Thankfully there should almost certainly be a few guys out there who can man the hot corner for you while Alex is on the mend. Take a look and see if Mark Reynolds and Kevin Kouzmanouf are available.
I love both of these guys this year and if they are available, it's a real shame. Reynolds is good for 30-35 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI, 10 SB and a .265 AVG. Maybe you think I'm crazy but check his periphs out, his BA will turn around this year, just you watch. He'll be a top 5 3B by the end of the season. Kouzmanouf doesn't offer quite the power that Reynolds does but the AVG should be higher. Expect something along the lines of 25 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI and a .280 BA, with some upside possible.
If you're in a deep league or these guys just aren't available, try you're luck with a guy like Mat Gamel. He's being compared to Ryan Braun; big bat, horrible glove. He has excellent contact skills and should hit for a high average right out of the gate, though his power numbers might still be a year or two away. Another guy to keep an eye on is Andy LaRoche. He's having a great spring which will do wonders for his confidence. All reports are saying he feels great at the plate (his play is proving it) and might be in for a surprise season for you deep leaguers or NL only guys.
Hopefully this helps take the sting out of the A-Rod news if you were unlucky enough to own the Yankees slugger.
Roto Wizard
Wow. The Karma Police struck fast on this one. All of you A-Rod owners out there have my sympathy. But don't panic, I'm here to offer up some advice and guidance to my children.
First let's start with what, if anything, is to be done with the Yankees third baseman. You can certainly entertain offers for him, but unless you get fair value in return, you're better off just waiting for him to get back. Which leads you to your next condundrum. Who do I pick up to fill the void???
Thankfully there should almost certainly be a few guys out there who can man the hot corner for you while Alex is on the mend. Take a look and see if Mark Reynolds and Kevin Kouzmanouf are available.
I love both of these guys this year and if they are available, it's a real shame. Reynolds is good for 30-35 HR, 90 R, 100 RBI, 10 SB and a .265 AVG. Maybe you think I'm crazy but check his periphs out, his BA will turn around this year, just you watch. He'll be a top 5 3B by the end of the season. Kouzmanouf doesn't offer quite the power that Reynolds does but the AVG should be higher. Expect something along the lines of 25 HR, 85 R, 80 RBI and a .280 BA, with some upside possible.
If you're in a deep league or these guys just aren't available, try you're luck with a guy like Mat Gamel. He's being compared to Ryan Braun; big bat, horrible glove. He has excellent contact skills and should hit for a high average right out of the gate, though his power numbers might still be a year or two away. Another guy to keep an eye on is Andy LaRoche. He's having a great spring which will do wonders for his confidence. All reports are saying he feels great at the plate (his play is proving it) and might be in for a surprise season for you deep leaguers or NL only guys.
Hopefully this helps take the sting out of the A-Rod news if you were unlucky enough to own the Yankees slugger.
Roto Wizard
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Player Profile: Nelson Cruz
Last year, in 115 Major League ABs, Nelson Cruz was on fire. In fact, if you add his minor league production to his stint with Texas in '09 he hit a whopping .339 with 44 HR, 125 RBI, 112 R and 27 SB. That is some MAJOR production, and that is what has just about everyone in baseball salivating at the possibility of him duplicating that line.
Let's start with a little back history. Cruz has earned the dubious reputation as a "Quad A" player. This is typical for guys who absolutely pound AAA pitching but have struggled upon being called up. After three unsuccesful stints in the majors (1 with the Brewers and 2 with Texas), the soon to be 29 year old finally made a smooth transition to the majors in '08. In those previously mentioned 115 ABs he hit a smokin' .330 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R, and 3 SB. His play opened some eyes in the Texas orginization and the powers that be have stated the RF job is his to lose. If this holds true you can pencil him in for a minimum of 450 ABs, with 550 a real possibility if his stellar play continues.
Taking a closer look at his numbers the first thing that jumps out at you is his astonishing .388 BABIP during his Texas stint. His career AAA BABIP has never been lower than .363 so one has to believe, if the numbers we are anticipating are to ever happen, his BABIP will have to be in that area. That's not to say that he loses all usefulness if he regresses to a more reasonable number, it's just that if it does regress, don't expect a .330 BA with 40+ HR. For comparisons sake, Albert Pujols has NEVER posted a BABIP higher than .350. So it's pretty safe to say that we can anticipate a drop off in his BABIP. Another concern is his BB/K ratio, which has never risen above the .64 mark. So we can't really count on an increase in BA through the means of taking more walks.
Another telling tale is the signifigant drop in his ISO upon arriving in the majors in '08. During his time in AAA his Isolated Power (ISO) was a gang busting .352 but in his Texas stint it dropped to a relatively tame .278. ISO is a calculation of a players ability to get extra bases on hits. This decline can be seen as such: while he was hitting his share of longballs and driving guys in, the rest of his hits were mostly singles. So even though the BA was stellar, and the RBI and HR were holding steady, he was more or less just trying to make good contact. In other words: Doing his best to not screw up.
Bill James is predicting 443 ABs, a .278 BA, 28 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI and 18 SB. That's a relatively good assesment based on what we just went over. He also has his BABIP at a more reasonable .307 and anticipates his ISO to stay below .300 at .255. Those are still excellent numbers for a player that in most cases will be drafted in the last few rounds and being sold for less than a few bucks in auction drafts.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Nelson Cruz can be counted on for a bit more than that. First off he finally has some confidence and he finally has an orginzation that is showing a little faith in the guy. He's looked fantastic this spring and has a homerun with 3 RBI in his 7 at bats. He also calls the Ballpark in Arlington his home and hits in a stellar lineup with players improving everyday. So here are my predictions, however bullish they may seem:
510 ABs, .288 BA, 92 R, 33 HR, 104 RBI and 19 SB. I think he can pick that ISO up a bit to around the .270 mark while keeping a decent .324 BABIP. These numbers would make him an incredibly valuable 5-tool OF and chances are you can get him so cheap it's almost illegal. Bid with confidence my fellow junkies.
Roto Wizard
Let's start with a little back history. Cruz has earned the dubious reputation as a "Quad A" player. This is typical for guys who absolutely pound AAA pitching but have struggled upon being called up. After three unsuccesful stints in the majors (1 with the Brewers and 2 with Texas), the soon to be 29 year old finally made a smooth transition to the majors in '08. In those previously mentioned 115 ABs he hit a smokin' .330 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R, and 3 SB. His play opened some eyes in the Texas orginization and the powers that be have stated the RF job is his to lose. If this holds true you can pencil him in for a minimum of 450 ABs, with 550 a real possibility if his stellar play continues.
Taking a closer look at his numbers the first thing that jumps out at you is his astonishing .388 BABIP during his Texas stint. His career AAA BABIP has never been lower than .363 so one has to believe, if the numbers we are anticipating are to ever happen, his BABIP will have to be in that area. That's not to say that he loses all usefulness if he regresses to a more reasonable number, it's just that if it does regress, don't expect a .330 BA with 40+ HR. For comparisons sake, Albert Pujols has NEVER posted a BABIP higher than .350. So it's pretty safe to say that we can anticipate a drop off in his BABIP. Another concern is his BB/K ratio, which has never risen above the .64 mark. So we can't really count on an increase in BA through the means of taking more walks.
Another telling tale is the signifigant drop in his ISO upon arriving in the majors in '08. During his time in AAA his Isolated Power (ISO) was a gang busting .352 but in his Texas stint it dropped to a relatively tame .278. ISO is a calculation of a players ability to get extra bases on hits. This decline can be seen as such: while he was hitting his share of longballs and driving guys in, the rest of his hits were mostly singles. So even though the BA was stellar, and the RBI and HR were holding steady, he was more or less just trying to make good contact. In other words: Doing his best to not screw up.
Bill James is predicting 443 ABs, a .278 BA, 28 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI and 18 SB. That's a relatively good assesment based on what we just went over. He also has his BABIP at a more reasonable .307 and anticipates his ISO to stay below .300 at .255. Those are still excellent numbers for a player that in most cases will be drafted in the last few rounds and being sold for less than a few bucks in auction drafts.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Nelson Cruz can be counted on for a bit more than that. First off he finally has some confidence and he finally has an orginzation that is showing a little faith in the guy. He's looked fantastic this spring and has a homerun with 3 RBI in his 7 at bats. He also calls the Ballpark in Arlington his home and hits in a stellar lineup with players improving everyday. So here are my predictions, however bullish they may seem:
510 ABs, .288 BA, 92 R, 33 HR, 104 RBI and 19 SB. I think he can pick that ISO up a bit to around the .270 mark while keeping a decent .324 BABIP. These numbers would make him an incredibly valuable 5-tool OF and chances are you can get him so cheap it's almost illegal. Bid with confidence my fellow junkies.
Roto Wizard
Player Profile: Jeremy Guthrie
I've decided to profile a few players each day. I'll go over their previous statistics, how they look this spring, what their team and experts are expecting, and then give my final analysis. The first player we'll start with is Baltimore Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie.
His statistics from last season are as follows: 30 starts, 190.2 IP, 131 K, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
His advanced statistics: 5.66 k/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, .247 BAA, .267 BABIP.
At first glance these numbers look anything but stellar. Obviously he doesn't pose much of a threat as a K artist, and his HR/9 is a bit on the high side for someone pitching close to 200 innings. These numbers make one think that he's actually due for a decline. But taking a closer look he has improved his BAA in each of the last three seasons. His BABIP has also remained low, leading us to believe that he can maintain a low number. Also his GB/FB ratio increased over his '07 campain as did his HR/FB percentage.
At 30 years old is hard to pose an arguement for a large improvement, but we can certainly point to him as a late bloomer with low mileage. So it's feasible that we can expect at least a little improvement in his control, which would help with his peripherials and have an impact on his K/BB and ultimately on his fantasy statistics.
Bill James is predicting 30 starts, 195 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 131 K, and 11 wins. These are pretty mediocre numbers. Other than his K/9 James is predicting some regression in his other advanced statistics. In his first spring outing he went 3 innings giving up 3 hits and a walk and looked very comfortable. Keep a close eye on him this spring. If he maintains this form I believe you can expect these numbers:
31 Starts, 13 Wins, 204 IP, 142 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
He's going largely undrafted in snake drafts and for no more than $1 in auction drafts. These numbers would make the Orioles ace an excellent value pick in the waning rounds of the draft.
Roto Wizard
His statistics from last season are as follows: 30 starts, 190.2 IP, 131 K, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
His advanced statistics: 5.66 k/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, .247 BAA, .267 BABIP.
At first glance these numbers look anything but stellar. Obviously he doesn't pose much of a threat as a K artist, and his HR/9 is a bit on the high side for someone pitching close to 200 innings. These numbers make one think that he's actually due for a decline. But taking a closer look he has improved his BAA in each of the last three seasons. His BABIP has also remained low, leading us to believe that he can maintain a low number. Also his GB/FB ratio increased over his '07 campain as did his HR/FB percentage.
At 30 years old is hard to pose an arguement for a large improvement, but we can certainly point to him as a late bloomer with low mileage. So it's feasible that we can expect at least a little improvement in his control, which would help with his peripherials and have an impact on his K/BB and ultimately on his fantasy statistics.
Bill James is predicting 30 starts, 195 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 131 K, and 11 wins. These are pretty mediocre numbers. Other than his K/9 James is predicting some regression in his other advanced statistics. In his first spring outing he went 3 innings giving up 3 hits and a walk and looked very comfortable. Keep a close eye on him this spring. If he maintains this form I believe you can expect these numbers:
31 Starts, 13 Wins, 204 IP, 142 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
He's going largely undrafted in snake drafts and for no more than $1 in auction drafts. These numbers would make the Orioles ace an excellent value pick in the waning rounds of the draft.
Roto Wizard
Manny Ramirez: Finally
Manny Ramirez signed today with the Dodgers. Let me first say this: He knew exactly what he was doing. As the season drew nearer his leverage over the Dodger Blue was growing exponentially. He and Boras were able to squeeze every last dollar out of them and got a deal that fit his career perfectly. So lets go over quickly how this affects the fantasy landscape. For the most part guys like Kemp, Either, Furcal etc... are being drafted as if Manny was all ready in the lineup. But a guy like Juan Pierre loses a tremendous amount of value as his playing time will now be reduced drastically, as the OF will now be manned by Kemp, Either and Manny. Pierre will be hard pressed to eclipse 200 ABs, so unless he's traded you can pretty much nix him as a cheap source of steals in mixed leagues. As for Manny it will be interesting to see how his season plays out. He's certainly capable of posting Manny-esque numbers, as his post trade numbers proved. My forecast is as follows:
550 ABs, 105 Runs, 42 HR, 120 RBI, .315 BA, 2 SB
It's possible he can eclipse these numbers, though not by much. If Furcal plays a full season and Either, Kemp and Loney continue to improve these numbers can be written in sharpie. As for dollar value, I've seen him go for as little as $15 and as much as $30. I'd pencil him in around that $27 mark, though I wouldn't argue with someone willing to pay a bit more than that, and anyone who got him below $20 can consider it an incredible buy. His power numbers will be similar to Braun, but since he doesn't swipe bases like Braun does, you can't really justify spending in the Braun range, though Manny's average will be a bit better. I'm pretty much telling you what you all ready know, but in case you weren't sure, I hope this helps.
Roto Wizard
550 ABs, 105 Runs, 42 HR, 120 RBI, .315 BA, 2 SB
It's possible he can eclipse these numbers, though not by much. If Furcal plays a full season and Either, Kemp and Loney continue to improve these numbers can be written in sharpie. As for dollar value, I've seen him go for as little as $15 and as much as $30. I'd pencil him in around that $27 mark, though I wouldn't argue with someone willing to pay a bit more than that, and anyone who got him below $20 can consider it an incredible buy. His power numbers will be similar to Braun, but since he doesn't swipe bases like Braun does, you can't really justify spending in the Braun range, though Manny's average will be a bit better. I'm pretty much telling you what you all ready know, but in case you weren't sure, I hope this helps.
Roto Wizard
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