Player Profile: Nelson Cruz

Last year, in 115 Major League ABs, Nelson Cruz was on fire. In fact, if you add his minor league production to his stint with Texas in '09 he hit a whopping .339 with 44 HR, 125 RBI, 112 R and 27 SB. That is some MAJOR production, and that is what has just about everyone in baseball salivating at the possibility of him duplicating that line.

Let's start with a little back history. Cruz has earned the dubious reputation as a "Quad A" player. This is typical for guys who absolutely pound AAA pitching but have struggled upon being called up. After three unsuccesful stints in the majors (1 with the Brewers and 2 with Texas), the soon to be 29 year old finally made a smooth transition to the majors in '08. In those previously mentioned 115 ABs he hit a smokin' .330 with 7 HR, 26 RBI, 19 R, and 3 SB. His play opened some eyes in the Texas orginization and the powers that be have stated the RF job is his to lose. If this holds true you can pencil him in for a minimum of 450 ABs, with 550 a real possibility if his stellar play continues.

Taking a closer look at his numbers the first thing that jumps out at you is his astonishing .388 BABIP during his Texas stint. His career AAA BABIP has never been lower than .363 so one has to believe, if the numbers we are anticipating are to ever happen, his BABIP will have to be in that area. That's not to say that he loses all usefulness if he regresses to a more reasonable number, it's just that if it does regress, don't expect a .330 BA with 40+ HR. For comparisons sake, Albert Pujols has NEVER posted a BABIP higher than .350. So it's pretty safe to say that we can anticipate a drop off in his BABIP. Another concern is his BB/K ratio, which has never risen above the .64 mark. So we can't really count on an increase in BA through the means of taking more walks.

Another telling tale is the signifigant drop in his ISO upon arriving in the majors in '08. During his time in AAA his Isolated Power (ISO) was a gang busting .352 but in his Texas stint it dropped to a relatively tame .278. ISO is a calculation of a players ability to get extra bases on hits. This decline can be seen as such: while he was hitting his share of longballs and driving guys in, the rest of his hits were mostly singles. So even though the BA was stellar, and the RBI and HR were holding steady, he was more or less just trying to make good contact. In other words: Doing his best to not screw up.

Bill James is predicting 443 ABs, a .278 BA, 28 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI and 18 SB. That's a relatively good assesment based on what we just went over. He also has his BABIP at a more reasonable .307 and anticipates his ISO to stay below .300 at .255. Those are still excellent numbers for a player that in most cases will be drafted in the last few rounds and being sold for less than a few bucks in auction drafts.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Nelson Cruz can be counted on for a bit more than that. First off he finally has some confidence and he finally has an orginzation that is showing a little faith in the guy. He's looked fantastic this spring and has a homerun with 3 RBI in his 7 at bats. He also calls the Ballpark in Arlington his home and hits in a stellar lineup with players improving everyday. So here are my predictions, however bullish they may seem:

510 ABs, .288 BA, 92 R, 33 HR, 104 RBI and 19 SB. I think he can pick that ISO up a bit to around the .270 mark while keeping a decent .324 BABIP. These numbers would make him an incredibly valuable 5-tool OF and chances are you can get him so cheap it's almost illegal. Bid with confidence my fellow junkies.

Roto Wizard