Player Profile: Jeremy Guthrie

I've decided to profile a few players each day. I'll go over their previous statistics, how they look this spring, what their team and experts are expecting, and then give my final analysis. The first player we'll start with is Baltimore Orioles ace Jeremy Guthrie.

His statistics from last season are as follows: 30 starts, 190.2 IP, 131 K, 3.63 ERA, 1.23 WHIP.
His advanced statistics: 5.66 k/9, 2.74 BB/9, 2.07 K/BB, 1.13 HR/9, .247 BAA, .267 BABIP.

At first glance these numbers look anything but stellar. Obviously he doesn't pose much of a threat as a K artist, and his HR/9 is a bit on the high side for someone pitching close to 200 innings. These numbers make one think that he's actually due for a decline. But taking a closer look he has improved his BAA in each of the last three seasons. His BABIP has also remained low, leading us to believe that he can maintain a low number. Also his GB/FB ratio increased over his '07 campain as did his HR/FB percentage.
At 30 years old is hard to pose an arguement for a large improvement, but we can certainly point to him as a late bloomer with low mileage. So it's feasible that we can expect at least a little improvement in his control, which would help with his peripherials and have an impact on his K/BB and ultimately on his fantasy statistics.

Bill James is predicting 30 starts, 195 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 131 K, and 11 wins. These are pretty mediocre numbers. Other than his K/9 James is predicting some regression in his other advanced statistics. In his first spring outing he went 3 innings giving up 3 hits and a walk and looked very comfortable. Keep a close eye on him this spring. If he maintains this form I believe you can expect these numbers:

31 Starts, 13 Wins, 204 IP, 142 K, 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

He's going largely undrafted in snake drafts and for no more than $1 in auction drafts. These numbers would make the Orioles ace an excellent value pick in the waning rounds of the draft.

Roto Wizard