Player Profile: Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce finally got the opportunity to rake in the big leagues after two and a half absolutely titanic seasons in the minors. In '06, his first year of pro ball, Bruce played 117 games in single A going 69/16/81/19/.291 in 444 ABs. In '07 he split time between high A+, AA and AAA ball. His combined numbers were even better, 87/25/89/8/.304 in 586 ABs. Although these numbers might not be awe inspiring, keep in mind that in '06 he was only 19 years old! He started '08 in AAA but that wouldn't last very long. After hitting .364 with 11 HR and a staggering 37 RBI in just 184 ABs, the Reds decided to make the call and send Bruce to the show. He went on to play 108 games with good power but his average dipped to .254. Unless a player is hitting 40+ that's a terrifying number. The good news is that the Reds are confident that he can improve, and as a fantasy owner, so should you.

At first glance there are some obvious discrepencies in several statistics from his minor league to major league games. His OPS, BABIP and ISO were all down very significant amounts. The most concerning of these numbers was his ISO, which dipped below .200 after hovering around .260 in AAA. So although he was posting decent power numbers, his number of extra base hits dropped a great deal. There is some silver lining here; his drop in ISO also coincided with a huge drop in BABIP. After never posting a BABIP lower than .351 in the minors he dipped to a very pedistrian .298. That's an incredible change of fortune, and it's safe to expect that number to rise at least a little bit. In fact if he can get that number to at least .315 it will boost his average to the .275 range which would at least make him rosterable. This would also add to his value as a baserunner effecting his steal and run totals. Also keep in mind he's still very young and Bruce is still finding his grove as a power hitter.

Bill James is anticipating a return to BABIP glory with a .342 projection. The rest of the James' projections are as follows: 94 R, 35 HR, 90 RBI, 12 SB and a .296 BA in 597 ABs. That's a very welcome improvement to his '08 line and makes him a very solid second OF that can be had in the middle rounds.

I'm a Bruce fan, but I still think his true value is a few years off. If he were to post the numbers James is predicting, he certainly has value, but I'm not buying into the 35 HR area just yet. So here are my projections: 89 R, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 10 SB and a .292 BA. I really don't think his BABIP gets higher than .325 this year nor do I think his ISO goes above .220. So my advice is to expect some growing pains for Bruce and bid passively. In '09 he makes a much better 3rd OF with upside than a consistent number 2 guy.

Roto Wizard.