A few words on some big hype youngsters

Recently in a draft I witnessed a bidding war over a trio pitchers that have been getting a lot of hype this off-season. Zack Grienke, Yovanni Gollardo and Josh Johnson. These guys have made tremendous strides in their game and each offer some major upside. But as the season draws nearer they seem to be going for more and more in each draft ($15+ I saw Grienke go for $21!!). Of the three I think Gollardo has the best chance to post numbers near his $ amount. His stikeout potential is legit and with a little luck he could post Liriano-like numbers. Grienke has excellent command and has decent K/9 numbers, but his W total may suffer in KC (though I feel KC will surprise a bit this year). Johnson is the one I like the least though his QS% was better than names like Halladay, Webb, Peavy and Haren. So here's my forecast for these three players:

Grienke: 191 IP, 12 wins, 182 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Gollardo: 203 IP, 14 wins, 191 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Johnson: 184 IP 13 wins, 168 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

I preach getting the players you want, but paying purely for upside can really come back to bite you, especially with pitchers. If you can't get these guys under $15 then let another owner take them.

On the offensive side of the coin there are two guys that I feel the need to write about: Chris Davis and Jay Bruce. I love both of these guys and honestly offensive production is alot easier to predict than pitching statistics. Davis is looking more and more like a guy that can post 90/35/110/280 numbers with multi-posistion eligibility. With those numbers I fully condone spending $20 on him, but once it starts to get to that point, take a look at the BA of the guys you have. If you're looking good then back off and go for Mark Reynolds. If not then maybe pay that extra dollar or two, but consider a guy like Kevin Kouzmanouf who can hit for average and could post 30/100 with 25/85 an almost certainty. Each of those two guys can be had for $1-$5.
As for Bruce his underlying peripherials are pointing to a huge season statistically. It's hard to see him hitting for anything more than a .280 AVG but the power numbers are almost limitless. His improved fly ball % and contact rate, as well as an increase in his pitches per at-bat point to 30+ HR with 35+ a real possibility. Depending on how the top of the order shapes out in Cinci he could post 100+ RBI but expect something closer to 90. He's also a good bet for 90+ runs. He'll even swipe some bases. So taking those numbers to your draft don't be afraid to shell out that $10, those are Carlos Quentin like numbers at half the price.